WSPG Wels vs First Vienna: match statistics

First Vienna sit 2nd, while WSPG Wels are only 15th; the visitors have won 4 of their 6 matches this season, compared with just 1 win for the hosts. Recent form also clearly favors the away side: First Vienna are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 4 wins and a draw with a 10:2 goal difference, whereas Wels have scored 5 goals and conceded 10 during that period. At home, WSPG Wels have lost all three matches, conceding an average of 2.33 goals, failing to keep a single clean sheet and scoring just 0.67 goals per game. First Vienna’s away defensive record looks significantly more reliable, as they allow opponents an average xG of just 0.96 and have kept a clean sheet in 67% of such matches. The hosts have a higher average xG, 1.54 compared with 1.26, but convert only 6% of their shots, while the visitors’ conversion rate stands at 12%, further strengthening the prediction of a First Vienna win.

The BTTS - Yes pick is not supported by the seasonal data, as both teams record this outcome in only 33% of their matches, well below the league average of 52%. WSPG Wels keeps a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while First Vienna has an identical rate of 67%, increasing the likelihood that at least one side will fail to score. The visitors are also showing a very solid defensive performance recently: they have conceded just 0.4 goals per game over their last five matches and allowed opponents an xG of 0.94. Although Wels have conceded an average of 2.0 goals over their last five fixtures and BTTS landed in 80% of those matches, they are scoring only 1.0 goal per game themselves. First Vienna have recently averaged 2.0 goals per match, so the most likely scenario remains an away win to nil or with limited attacking output from the hosts.

The projected goal total is 2.40, placing the 3.5 line clearly above the match’s central scenario. In their last five matches, First Vienna conceded just 0.4 goals per game and allowed opponents an xG of 0.94, while WSPG Wels averaged only 1.0 goal per game during the same period. Vienna are nevertheless effective offensively, averaging 2.0 goals across their five most recent appearances, but Wels’ defense conceded 2.0 goals per game, making a result with approximately 1–2 away goals the most realistic outcome. Both teams kept a clean sheet in 67% of matches in the current data set, while only 33% of First Vienna’s games went Over 2.5 goals, further reducing the likelihood of four goals. Under 3.5 is therefore the strongest option, allowing for results such as 1:1, 1:2 or 0:2.

First Vienna are in significantly better current form: over their last 5 matches, they averaged 2.6 points, won 80% of their games and remained unbeaten, while WSPG Wels managed only 0.8 points and lost 60% of their matches. During this period, the away side conceded just 0.4 goals per match, compared with 2.0 for the hosts, which clearly strengthens the scenario of a First Vienna win at full time. First Vienna were already leading at the break in 60% of their recent matches, whereas Wels led in only 20%, scoring an average of 0.2 first-half goals compared with the visitors’ 0.6. After the break, the form advantage also remains with the away side, who score an average of 1.4 goals, while Wels concede as many as 1.4 in this half; therefore, the most likely HT/FT outcome is First Vienna leading at half-time and winning the match, 2/2.