WSPG Wels vs Sturm Graz II: match statistics

WSPG Wels holds advantages across several key indicators: they have scored 37 goals this season versus Sturm Graz II’s 28 and have netted 9 goals in the last 5 matches compared to 6 for the visitors. At home Wels posts an average xG of 1.24 with xG against 1.37, while Sturm registers xG 1.20 and xG against 1.64, indicating Wels creates higher-quality chances and demonstrates better defensive organization. At home Wels concedes 1.08 goals per match on average with 50% possession and 3.92 shots on target, whereas visitors concede 1.46 goals on the road, average 45% possession and 3.38 shots on target. Sturm Graz II is, however, more efficient in finishing (12% conversion vs 10% for the hosts) and less likely to finish goalless (FTS 23% vs 31%), so they pose a threat on the counter. Considering superior points per match in the last 5 fixtures (1.4 vs 0.8), a lower home loss rate for Wels (31% vs 46% away losses for the visitors) and a better home goal difference (-1 vs -5 away), I assess a higher probability of a home victory.

Strong signal for BTTS - Yes: both teams recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (WSPG Wels 80% and Sturm Graz II 80%), with season rates of 50% for Wels and 62% for Sturm. Both defenses are vulnerable — Wels concedes an average of 1.86 goals per match this season (40 conceded), Sturm 1.46 (45 conceded), and in the last 5 matches the averages are 1.4 and 1.6 goals conceded respectively, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. In xG terms Wels has xG_for 1.35 versus xG_against_away 1.64, and Sturm xG_for 1.20 versus xG_against_home 1.51, meaning both sides generate xG around ~1.2–1.35 and create legitimate scoring opportunities. Additionally Wels has 0% clean sheets this season, Sturm 23%; in the last 5 matches Wels scored 9 and conceded 7, Sturm scored 6 and conceded 8, which confirms a tendency toward goal-filled matches from both sides. Considering 80% BTTS form, season rates 50/62% and the above xG and goals conceded metrics, I recommend BTTS = Yes (75% vs 25%).

I estimate total expected xG at 2.55 (1.35 for WSPG Wels and 1.20 for Sturm Graz II), which is close to the league average of 2.68. The home side have 79% of their matches this season with at least 2 goals, the visitors 77%, and in the last 5 matches Wels averaged 1.8 goals versus Sturm II’s 1.2, supporting a minimum-2-goals scenario. A Poisson model with λ=2.55 yields approximate probabilities of Over 1.5 ≈73%, Over 2.5 ≈47% and Over 3.5 ≈25%, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, BTTS occurred in 50% of the home team’s matches and 62% of the visitors’ matches, and across the last 5 meetings for both teams BTTS was 80%, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. For these reasons I recommend playing Over 1.5 as the best line to take.

Seasonal statistics favor the visitors: Sturm Graz II averages 1.15 points per match and a 31% win rate versus WSPG Wels, which posts 0.50 points per match and only a 7% win rate. In the last five fixtures the visitors led at the break in 40% of matches while the hosts did so in 0%, and the average goals by half stand at 1.0 for Sturm Graz II versus 0.4 for WSPG Wels, indicating an advantage for the visitors before the interval. Although the hosts have a slightly higher xG (1.35 versus 1.20), WSPG Wels concedes 1.86 goals per game on average compared to 1.46 for Sturm Graz II, so the visitors’ defense is more stable and increases the likelihood of maintaining a lead. Additionally, the visitors collect an average of 1.23 points after the break versus 0.64 for the hosts, therefore the Half-Time/Full-Time scenario of the visitors leading at the break and winning the match appears strongest; I assign it a 26% probability, with 25% for a draw at half-time followed by a visitors’ win and 12% for a full-time draw as relevant alternatives.