Yacoub El Mansour vs Raja Casablanca: match statistics

Raja Casablanca (3rd) holds a clear advantage over Yacoub El Mansour (14th) — the visitors have 14 wins and 33 goals in the season while the hosts have only 5 wins and 28 goals. The decisive gap is in defense: Yacoub concede an average of 1.54 goals per home match and 39 goals in total, whereas Raja concede 0.83 on the road and just 16 goals in the season, with an away clean sheet rate of 50% versus the hosts’ 8%. Offensively the hosts attempt more shots (11.77 vs 8.92 per match) and have higher home xG (1.42 vs 1.19), but the visitors are more efficient (conversion 14% vs 10%) and have scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches compared to the hosts’ 6; both teams average 1.4 points per match over the last five. Additionally Raja have a superior away record (50% wins and +5 goal difference), while the hosts win only 23% at home with a -4 record, which favors the visitors’ stability. Based on this, I predict an away win.

Seasonal indicators point to a low probability of BTTS: Yacoub El Mansour have BTTS in 29% of matches, Raja in 33%, while in the league BTTS occurs in 50% of games and clean sheets are recorded in 62% of matches. The home side are particularly defensive — conceding 0.43 goals per game on average and keeping a clean sheet in 57% of matches, with an xG against of just 0.81, indicating few chances created by opponents. The visitors average 1.25 goals scored and 0.83 conceded for the season, but in the last 5 matches Raja concede 1.6 goals on average and have BTTS in 60% of those fixtures. In the short term the home team show BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches and produce more shots (12.64) and shots on target (4.57) versus the visitors’ 8.92 and 3.67, which provides potential for goals at both ends; however, the strongest signal remains the home side’s seasonal defensive metrics and the low seasonal BTTS rates of 29%/33%, so I forecast No BTTS and back 'No' (No Goal).

The model based on xG and attack/defense stats yields expected goals of 1.47 for the home side (attack xG 1.57 vs opponent xG 1.37) and 1.00 for the away side (attack xG 1.19 vs opponent xG 0.81), totaling 2.47 goals. With total xG = 2.47 the Poisson distribution gives about a 71% chance of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5), supporting the Over 1.5 line; seasonally Over 1.5 occurs 50% for homes and 67% for aways. The 2.5 line is less convincing: seasonally Over 2.5 is only 21% for homes and 17% for aways, and the model Poisson result gives roughly a 45% chance of Over 2.5, so the edge is not clear. The 3.5 line is unlikely – seasonally Over 3.5 is 7–8% for both teams, and Poisson indicates about a 24% chance of >=4 goals; additionally the home side has 57% clean sheets and both teams have low BTTS (29% and 33%), which limits the probability of a very high-scoring game. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 (strongest signal) with expected goals 1.47/1.00 and total 2.47; the 2.5 line (Over ~45% vs Under 55%) and 3.5 line (Over ~24% vs Under 76%) are less attractive.

Hosts have the xG advantage and superior defense: Yacoub El Mansour generates xG 1.57 versus 1.19 for Raja, and the hosts’ season average goals conceded is 0.43 versus 0.83 for the visitors, indicating an expected goals edge for the hosts. At Half-Time we most often see low scores — hosts average 0.57 goals by the break and have led at the break in 7 of their matches (50%), while keeping a clean sheet at the break in 93% of games, so the most likely half-time scores are 0:0 or 1:0 to the hosts. In Second Halves the hosts more often overturn or extend leads: they earn an average 1.64 points in second halves versus 1.33 for the visitors, and also record more shots (12.64 vs 8.92) and shots on target (4.57 vs 3.67), which supports converting control into a win. Given these figures and a higher home win rate of 57% versus 50% for the visitors, the most reliable scenario is the hosts leading at Half-Time and winning at Full-Time (HT/FT 1/1).