Yanbian Longding vs Nanjing City: match statistics

I predict a home win — Yanbian Longding (2nd) holds a clear statistical edge over Nanjing City (10th): this season Yanbian scored 23 goals with a record of 7 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses, while Nanjing have 15 goals and a record of 5 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses. In the last 5 matches the hosts scored 10 goals and won 4 of 5 (4W,1D), conceding only 2, whereas the visitors have 1 win and 4 losses, scoring 5 and conceding 8; the points-per-game in that period is 2.6 for Yanbian and 0.6 for Nanjing. At home Yanbian average 1.5 goals and 0.75 conceded per match with 4.75 shots on target and 56% possession, while Nanjing away average 0.63 goals, 1.25 conceded and only 2.5 shots on target with 43% possession. xG confirms this advantage: home xG for Yanbian is 1.41 versus 1.24 xG for the visitors away, and a higher clean sheet rate (38% vs 13%) and lower share of matches without scoring (25% vs 38%) indicate superior defensive quality and finishing for Yanbian. Considering the higher season goal tally (23 vs 15), better form (10 goals and 4 wins in the last 5) and the 2.6 vs 0.6 points average, I assign the hosts approximately a 70% chance, a draw 18% and an away win 12%.

I recommend the 'no' market (BTTS - No), because Yanbian shows strong defensive form: in the last 5 matches the home side scored 10 goals total (2.0 avg) and conceded only 2 (0.4 per match), and across the season they keep a clean sheet in 38% of games. Nanjing City struggles for finishing — season average 0.63 goals per game and fails to score in 38% of matches, with a conversion rate of only 5% versus 10% for the hosts and on average 2.5 shots on target vs 3.75 for Yanbian. xG indicates both teams create chances (Yanbian avg xG 1.46, Nanjing avg xG 1.24), but average xG conceded against Nanjing is 1.39 versus 1.04 against Yanbian, suggesting the visitors have opportunities but are less efficient at converting them. Season BTTS rates are neutral (both teams 50%, league BTTS 53%), however the hosts have had BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, and the visitors record 38% of games without scoring, which shifts the balance toward No Goal. Considering Yanbian’s form (10 scored and 2 conceded in the last 5) and Nanjing’s poor finishing, I assign approximately a 62% probability to 'no' and 38% to 'yes'.

Based on xG, the home side Yanbian Longding have xG_for 1.46 while their opponents have xG_against 1.39 — averaging expected home goals around 1.43; the away team Nanjing City have xG_for 1.24 against the home xG_against 1.04, giving them about 1.14 goals and a combined expected goals total of 2.57. Yanbian Longding scored 10 goals in their last 5 matches (2.0 per game) and average 3.75 shots on target per match, whereas Nanjing City have 5 goals in their last 5 (1.0 per game) and only 2.5 shots on target; additionally the visitors’ shot conversion rate is 5% versus 10% for the hosts, which weakens their finishing. A Poisson model with λ=2.57 yields ~73% probability of more than 1.5 goals, ~47% for Over 2.5 goals and ~26% for Over 3.5 goals, indicating a clear advantage for the 1.5 line. This season the hosts have 50% of matches over 2.5 goals, the visitors 25%, and both teams record 63% of matches with at least 2 goals, further supporting the over option on the lower line. Best pick: Over 1.5 (back Over) — strongest signal at 73% probability and expected 2.57 goals.

Yanbian holds a clear statistical edge: they score an average of 1.25 goals per match versus Nanjing’s 0.63 and concede 1.00 on average versus 1.25 for the opposition, giving the home side a superior goal balance. In the first half the hosts average 0.88 goals compared to the visitors’ 0.38, and Yanbian lead at the break in 38% of matches versus Nanjing’s 25%, so the most likely scenario is the home side leading after 45 minutes. The hosts also display higher xG (1.46 vs 1.24), more shots on target (3.75 vs 2.5) and better shot conversion (10% vs 5%), which increases the chances of holding the lead and turning it into a win (hosts win 50% of matches vs 13% for the visitors). Additionally, in their last five matches Yanbian have won 4 of 5 (80%) and led at half-time in 3 of 5 (60%), while Nanjing have only one win in their last five (20%), reinforcing the hold-the-lead scenario. Therefore the strongest signal is the HT/FT 1/1; I estimate its probability at around 32%.