Yongin City vs Asan Mugunghwa: match statistics

I back the away win (2): Asan Mugunghwa holds a qualitative edge — average away xG for the visitors is 1.54 versus 1.13 home xG for the hosts. Additionally, Asan defends more consistently: they concede on average 1.00 goal away and record clean sheets in 25% of away matches, whereas Yongin concede 1.83 at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet (0%). Yongin, however, possess better finishing efficiency — the hosts score on average 1.67 goals at home with a 22% conversion rate and have scored 9 times in the last 5 matches, yielding an average of 1.4 points per game over that period. Asan attempt significantly more shots (11 per match and 4 on target away) despite a lower conversion of 9%, which, combined with higher xG and more stable defense, gives them a stronger basis for a favorable result. Based on this I estimate probabilities: away 45%, home 30%, draw 25%.

I back BTTS - Yes because Yongin City has a seasonal BTTS rate of 71% and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Asan has 50% seasonally and 40% in the last 5, giving a strong home signal for both teams to score. Yongin concedes an average of 1.57 goals per match, and Asan scores an average of 1.0 away (1.2 in the last 5), so the visitors have a realistic chance to score despite lower efficiency. xG shows Asan generates 1.54 xG versus xG against Yongin of 1.40, and Yongin has 1.37 xG versus 1.35 xG against Asan, so both sides create chances. The difference in shot conversion is significant — Yongin converts at 17% with an average of 11 shots and 4 on target, Asan only 9% with 11 and 4 — this lowers Asan’s chances but is not enough to rule out a goal. Considering Yongin’s 71%/80% BTTS, the league average BTTS 63% and low clean sheet rates (Yongin 29%, Asan 25%), I assess BTTS at 72% (Yes) vs 28% (No).

Based on xG: Yongin has xG_for 1.37, Asan xG_for 1.54, and xG against is 1.40 (Yongin) and 1.35 (Asan), yielding an estimated 1.36 goals for the home side and 1.47 for the away side, totaling 2.83 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=2.83 calculates roughly a 78% probability for Over 1.5 goals (>=2), about 54% for Over 2.5 and approximately 31% for Over 3.5. Seasonal stats confirm Yongin’s offensive profile: Over1.5 in 86% of matches and Over2.5 in 71%, while Asan sits at 50% on both lines; in the last 5 matches Yongin recorded Over2.5 in 80% and both teams scored in 80% of those fixtures (Asan 40% in the last 5). Additionally Yongin averages 1.86 goals per game and registers 4.0 on-target shots on average, while Asan has 1.00 goals seasonally with xG_for 1.54 and also 4.0 on-target shots, which supports the real scoring potential of both sides. As a result the strongest signal from the data is the over at the 1.5 line (pick: Over 1.5) with an implied probability around 78%.

Hosts perform markedly better in first halves: Yongin City led at the break in 3 of 7 matches (43%) and score an average of 0.86 goals by half-time, whereas Asan average 0.0 first-half goals and have never led at the break (0%). Over the full season the home side score 1.86 goals per game and win 43% of matches, while the visitors average 1.0 goals per game and only 25% wins, giving Yongin the overall edge in the final outcome. Additionally, the hosts have accumulated 10 points at half-time versus 1 point for the visitors and record a shot conversion rate of 17% versus Asan’s 9%, despite xG figures of 1.37 for Yongin and 1.54 for Asan (so the visitors create higher xG but convert it less efficiently). In second halves the hosts score on average 1.0 goals and concede 0.57 (1.57 goals in second halves overall) and 86% of their matches have at least one goal after the break, indicating an ability to hold or extend a lead. Based on this evidence the strongest signal is a home lead at half-time and a home win at full-time (1/1), while scenarios that start with the visitors leading at half-time are collectively assigned only 5% weight due to Asan’s season-long 0% rate of leading at the break.