Yongin City vs Cheongju: match statistics

I predict a draw because both teams show a strong propensity to share points: Yongin have recorded 7 draws at home this season (50% of home matches) and only 13% wins, while Cheongju have as many as 86% draws away (10 draws). Offensive metrics are similar — Cheongju average 1.43 goals on the road, Yongin 1.38 at home, with xG 1.28 for the visitors and 1.13 for the hosts, and 9.71 vs 7.75 shots per match. Defensive trends differ: Cheongju have conceded 12 goals in the last 5 matches (2.4 per game), whereas Yongin conceded 5 (1.0 per game) and average 1.4 points in their last 5 matches compared to Cheongju’s 1.0. Finishing favors the hosts (conversion 18% vs 15% for the visitors), but the high draw rates and similar xG make a points split the most likely outcome.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Yongin City 88% and Cheongju 71%, averaging around 80% and exceeding the league 63%. In the last 5 matches Cheongju has 100% BTTS, averaging 1.6 scored and 2.4 conceded, while Yongin has 60% BTTS with 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded, so especially the visitors both score and concede regularly. Low chances of a clean sheet (Yongin 13%, Cheongju 29%) and season average goals conceded 2.13 for Yongin and 1.29 for Cheongju further increase the likelihood of both teams scoring. xG and shot metrics show genuine threat: Yongin has 1.56 xG and allows 1.33 xG with 3.88 on-target shots, Cheongju has 1.28 xG and allows 1.31 xG with 4.29 on-target shots, and the efficiency gap (conversion 8% vs 15%) suggests both teams will find the net. Based on this I pick BTTS - Yes as the strongest signal (80% vs 20%).

xG estimates give 1.44 goals for Yongin (xG for 1.56 and xG against opponent 1.31) and 1.31 for Cheongju (xG for 1.28 and xG against hosts 1.33), i.e. an expected 2.75 goals in total. Seasonal metrics show a strong propensity for goals: Over 1.5 occurred in 88% of Yongin’s matches and 71% of Cheongju’s, while BTTS is 88% and 71% respectively. In the last 5 matches Cheongju had 80% over 2.5 and 100% BTTS, while Yongin had 40% over 2.5 and 60% BTTS, which raises the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Considering the hosts’ average conceded goals of 2.13 per match and the visitors’ average goals scored of 1.43, I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (86%); Over 2.5 is assessed as moderately likely (~61%), and Over 3.5 as less likely (~36%).

First-half statistics point to drawn starts: Yongin were level at half-time in 63% of their matches this season (leadingAtHT_home = 13%, trailingAtHT_home = 25%), while Cheongju led at the break in 29% of fixtures. After the interval Cheongju hold the edge — they score on average 1.0 goal in the second half (scored_2hg_avg_away = 1.0), have a +2 second-half goal difference (gd_2hg_away = 2.0) and win 43% of second halves, whereas Yongin score only 0.5 goals and carry a -7 second-half goal difference (scored_2hg_avg_home = 0.5, gd_2hg_home = -7.0). Additionally the visitors are more efficient in front of goal: Cheongju’s shot conversion is 15% versus Yongin’s 8% (shot_conversion_rate_away = 15, shot_conversion_rate_home = 8); although Yongin’s xG_for is 1.56 compared with Cheongju’s 1.28, the home side’s lower finishing reduces their xG advantage. Yongin have a 0% win rate this season and 50% draws (winPercentage_home = 0, drawPercentage_home = 50), while Cheongju show the stronger second-half profile and a 14% overall win rate. The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an away win after the break (X/2: 30%); alternatively a full-time draw (X/X: 28%) or the visitors leading at half-time and holding on for the win (2/2: 16%).