Yongin City vs Daegu: match statistics

Daegu are the favorites: they sit 5th with a season record of 6 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses and 25 goals scored, while Yongin City are 13th with 2 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses and 15 goals. In attack Daegu have a clear advantage — the visitors average 12.8 shots and 5.4 on target per away match with an average xG of 1.76 and 2.0 goals away, whereas the hosts at home average 8 shots, 3.86 on target, xG 1.15 and 1.43 goals per match. Defensively the differences are smaller: Yongin concede on average 1.57 goals at home with an xG against of 1.58, and Daegu concede 1.6 goals away with xG against 1.41, which suggests the visitors allow slightly fewer high-quality chances. Recent form over the last 5 matches also favors Daegu — the visitors scored 10 goals, won 3 of 5 and average 2.0 points per match, while Yongin have 9 goals, 2 wins and 1.6 points per match; the percentage of matches without scoring is 20% for Daegu versus 29% for Yongin. Considering the higher shot volume (12.8 vs 8), superior xG (1.76 vs 1.15) and the goal differential 25–15, I tip a Daegu win and estimate probabilities as: home 20%, draw 25%, away 55%.

I back BTTS - Yes based on strong attacking signals: Yongin City averages 2.14 goals per game, Daegu 2.00, and combined xG is 1.89 vs 1.76, indicating regular chance creation. Season defensive data show Yongin concedes 1.43 goals per game and Daegu 1.60, while the league has a seasonal BTTS rate of 62%, which further supports both teams scoring. A key argument for Yes is Daegu’s seasonal BTTS rate of 80% (Yongin 57%), and the combination of over 2.5 goals and BTTS occurs in 80% of Daegu’s matches and 56% of Yongin’s. There are downside signals: in the last 5 matches Daegu’s BTTS is only 40% and Daegu concedes an average of 0.6 goals (Yongin concedes 1.2), indicating Daegu has recently kept clean sheets more often. Considering the season xG advantage and Daegu’s high seasonal BTTS (80%) alongside the league BTTS level of 62%, I assess the probability of BTTS at 68% for Yes and 32% for No.

The combined xG for both teams is 3.65 (1.89 + 1.76), which in a Poisson model yields approximately an 87.9% chance of at least 2 goals and about 70.6% for at least 3 goals. Seasonal stats support this outlook: Yongin have 86% of matches over 1.5 goals, Daegu 80%, and for the 2.5 line respectively 71% and 80%. Additionally, BTTS is 57% for Yongin and 80% for Daegu, and over the last 5 matches the teams have averaged 1.8 and 2.0 goals, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Based on this, the strongest play is Over 1.5 (highest probability), although Over 2.5 also looks statistically sound given the combined xG and the seasonal 71%/80% figures.

Statistical analysis indicates the home side are the favorites over 90 minutes: they average 2.14 goals per match versus Daegu’s 2.0, have 57% wins compared to the visitors’ 40%, and more points per game 1.86 vs 1.6. At half-time a draw is commonly observed — the hosts were level at the break in 57% of matches, and in the last five fixtures both teams recorded draws at half-time in 60% of games, which raises the likelihood of a draw at the break. After the break the home team are more proactive: they score on average 1.29 goals in the second half while conceding 0.71 and have 86% of matches with a goal in the second half versus 80% for the visitors, so they are more often the side to change the scoreline. xG favors the hosts 1.89 to 1.76 and the average shots 15.57 vs 12.8 also support them, therefore the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Yongin City victory at full-time (X/1).