Yongin City vs Gimhae City: match statistics

Both teams are still without a win this season: Yongin City have 0 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses at home, while Gimhae City have 0 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses away. Yongin averages 1.25 goals per home game versus Gimhae’s 0.75 on the road; average xG is 1.09 vs 1.03, and conversion rate is 16% vs 10% in favor of the hosts. The home side averages 7.75 shots and 54% possession, while the visitors register 7.25 shots and 46% possession, suggesting Yongin controls the game. Both teams are vulnerable defensively — Yongin concedes 2.00 goals per home match, Gimhae 1.75 away, and goals conceded in the last 5 matches are 8 and 10 respectively; neither team has a clean sheet (0%). Considering better finishing (16% conversion) and possession advantage, I slightly favor the hosts and back a Yongin City win, although a draw remains realistic given the overall poor form of both sides.

Seasonal BTTS rates are 67% for Yongin City and 75% for Gimhae City, averaging 71% and exceeding the league baseline of 63%, so the primary signal favors BTTS. Both teams have 0% clean sheets this season and concede an average of 3.0 (Yongin) and 1.75 (Gimhae) goals per game, and 1.6 and 2.0 in the last 5 matches respectively; this significantly increases the likelihood of Goal/Goal. xG metrics show Yongin generates 1.22 xG and concedes 1.82 xG, while Gimhae has 1.03 xG and concedes 1.76 xG, with 2.67 vs 3.50 shots on target — both sides create and allow scoring chances. Considering the 67%/75% seasonal BTTS, the absence of clean sheets and relatively high average goals conceded, I favor BTTS - Yes (78% vs 22%).

The forecast is based on xG and season statistics: Yongin City has xG_for 1.22 and opponents’ xG_against 1.76 (home expected goals ≈ 1.49), while Gimhae City has xG_for 1.03 and opponents’ xG_against 1.82 (away expected goals ≈ 1.43), totaling ≈ 2.92 expected goals. Both teams have seasonOver15Percentage = 100%, meaning every match this season exceeded 1.5 goals; additionally Yongin at home has seasonOver25Percentage = 100% versus 25% for Gimhae away. A Poisson distribution with λ=2.92 yields about a 56% chance for Over 2.5 and about 33% for Over 3.5, but the high goals conceded (Yongin ga 3.0, Gimhae ga 1.75), BTTS 67%/75% and the home side’s tendency toward high-scoring matches increase the probability of Over 2.5 to an estimated 72%. No clean sheets (seasonCSPercentage 0% for both) and the league average goals of 2.81 further support the scenario of at least two goals, so the Over 1.5 bet is rated at 95%. In summary: I recommend Over 1.5 as the safest option; Over 2.5 has moderate value (~72%), and Over 3.5 is less likely (~34%).

At half-time the home side are more likely to be leading: homes average 0.33 first-half goals versus 0.0 for the visitors, with overall first-half goals per game 1.0 for homes vs 0.75 for away, and seasonally 100% of home matches have at least one goal in the first half. However, the hosts perform very poorly after the break — they concede on average 2.33 goals in the second half and 3.0 goals per match, and conceded 3 and 4 goals respectively in the 61–75 and 76–90 minute intervals, which raises the likelihood of a turnaround. The visitors show higher efficiency: 3.5 shots on target on average (vs 2.67 for homes) and a 10% conversion rate versus 6%, with xG 1.03 for the visitors vs 1.22 for the hosts — they create chances and are more effective at converting them. Additionally, both teams frequently score (both teams scored in 67% of home matches and 75% of away matches), and in the last five fixtures the visitors were leading at half-time in 0% of cases and were behind at half-time in 80% of matches, suggesting the visitors often come back in the second half (in the last five away matches they scored >0.5 second-half goals in 100% of cases). Therefore I select HT/FT 1/2 as the strongest signal: the hosts may lead at the break, and the visitors, leveraging superior efficiency and the hosts’ weak post-break defending, will overturn the result — I assign this scenario a 32% probability.