Yongin City vs Hwaseong: match statistics

The table and season form favor Hwaseong: the visitors sit 6th while Yongin are 12th; Hwaseong have 7 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses this season, the hosts 3 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses. In the last 5 matches Hwaseong scored 11 goals and won 3 of 5 (record 3-0-2) with an average of 1.8 points per game, whereas Yongin scored 5 goals and are 1-3-1 with a 1.2 points average. Quality of chances is similar — average xG-for is 1.11 for both teams, but Yongin concede a higher xG-against (1.56 vs 1.41) and have conceded more goals over the season (23 vs 19). The hosts register more on-target shots at home (3.44 vs 2.75) and have a lower shutout rate (22% vs 50%), but draw as many as 56% of home matches, while Hwaseong have 50% wins and 0% draws away, which increases result volatility. Considering the similar xG (1.11), Yongin’s high draw rate (56%) and Hwaseong’s better finishing in the last 5 (11 goals vs 5), the most likely outcome is a draw, with a slight edge to the visitors.

Data indicates both teams have seasonal BTTS rates of 58% (Yongin City) and 50% (Hwaseong), while the league average is 63%, which generally favors a BTTS - Yes scenario. In the last 5 matches BTTS is 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side; Hwaseong scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (avg 2.2) and Yongin 5 goals (avg 1.0), highlighting better attacking form from the visitors. xG is 1.59 for the home team versus 1.11 for the away team, with xG against at 1.36 and 1.41 respectively, meaning both teams generate expected goal chances above 1.0, which supports goals from both sides. Limiting factors include Yongin’s 42% clean sheets at home and the fact Hwaseong has no clean sheets this season (0%) and failed to score in 50% of seasonal matches, which reduces BTTS probability in some match-ups. Considering the offensive signal advantage (13.08 vs 7.75 shots, 5.0 vs 2.75 shots on target) and the strong recent trend from the visitors, I favor the 'Both Teams To Score' scenario and assess its probability at 70% versus 30% for No Goal.

Based on xG: Yongin City has xG_for 1.59, while Hwaseong concedes an average xG 1.41, yielding ~1.50 expected goals for the home side; conversely Hwaseong xG_for 1.11 against Yongin defense (xG_against 1.36) translates to ~1.24 goals for the visitors, totaling ~2.74 goals. The probabilistic model converts this into roughly 76% chance of OVER 1.5, 52% for OVER 2.5 and 29% for OVER 3.5, therefore the strongest signal is at 1.5. Match data support the over: Yongin averages 13.08 shots and 5.0 shots on target per game versus Hwaseong’s 7.75 and 2.75, and OVER0.5 occurrence this season is 92% for the home team and 100% for the away. Additionally Hwaseong scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches (2.2 per game) while Yongin has 5 goals in the last 5 (1.0), increasing the probability of at least 2 total goals in this fixture.

Yongin City holds a clear first-half advantage: the hosts led at the break in 5 matches (42%) versus 1 instance (25%) for Hwaseong, scoring 14 goals by halftime compared to 5 for their opponents and averaging 0.58 goals per half versus 0.50 for the away side. The difference in chance creation is confirmed by an xG of 1.59 versus 1.11 and shot counts of 13.08 vs 7.75 with shots on target 5.0 vs 2.75, which increases the likelihood that the home side’s lead at the break will persist. Although Hwaseong has a higher overall win rate (50% vs 42%) and better form in the last 5 matches (60% wins), the hosts’ HTPoints 18 vs 4 and HTPPG 1.5 vs 1.0 and 58% clean first-halves for Yongin indicate first-half control. On this basis the strongest signal is Yongin leading at half-time and the hosts winning after 90 minutes (1/1).