Yunnan Yukun vs Shenyang Urban: match statistics

Yunnan Yukun are significantly more effective at home, averaging 2.17 goals per match, while Shenyang Urban score just 1.00 goal away from home. The hosts win 58% of their home matches and lose 25%, whereas the visitors have won only 9% of their away games, suffering defeats in as many as 64%. Yunnan Yukun’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.81 compared with the opponents’ 1.34, while shots on target average 5.5 versus 3.82. Shenyang Urban fail to score in 45% of away matches, and their defense concedes an average of 1.73 goals, keeping a clean sheet in only 9% of such games. Both teams have recorded similar attacking output over their last five matches, scoring 9 goals each, but the hosts’ recent record stands at 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats, while the visitors have managed just one victory and suffered 3 losses, further strengthening the case for backing the home side.

The signal for both teams to score is strengthened by the very low number of clean sheets: Yunnan Yukun kept a clean sheet in only 8% of matches, while Shenyang Urban did so in 9%. The hosts have recorded BTTS in 69% of their matches this season, and although the visitors’ figure stands at only 45%, their recent run has been much more open, with BTTS landing in 80% of their last five matches. In this sample, both teams averaged 1.8 goals scored, while Yunnan conceded 2.6 goals per match and Shenyang 2.0. Their attacking potential is also supported by the average xG from the last five matches: 1.74 for the hosts and 1.14 for the visitors, with xG conceded at 1.54 and 1.57 respectively. The risk to this pick is that Shenyang failed to score in 45% of matches across the entire season, but the weak defenses and current scoring form more clearly support the BTTS scenario.

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches: over their last five games, Yunnan Yukun averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.6 conceded, while Shenyang Urban scored 1.8 and allowed 2.0 goals per game. Each team went Over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 5 matches, representing an 80% rate. Across the season, the hosts have recorded matches with Over 1.5 goals in 77% of games, compared with 73% for the visitors, while both defenses concede an average of 1.69 and 1.73 goals, respectively. The chance-quality metrics also support a goals market, as the hosts allow opponents an xG of 1.50, while the visitors allow 1.61. The safest signal is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.00 goals is comfortably above this line and the risk of a very low-scoring outcome is limited.

Yunnan Yukun have a clear advantage in full-time results: they have won 46% of their matches, compared with just 9% for Shenyang Urban, while the visitors have lost as many as 64% of their games. The first half also favors the hosts, who were leading at the break in 31% of matches, whereas the visitors were behind at half-time in 82% of cases and scored just 0.27 goals per game during that period. Yunnan average 0.62 goals before the break and concede exactly the same amount, but Shenyang’s defense allows 1.27 goals per match in this phase. After half-time, the hosts score an average of 1.15 goals, with 2.23 goals scored in their matches during this period, reinforcing the scenario of maintaining or extending their lead. The teams’ last five matches were less stable early on, but the hosts’ advantage in finishing quality, 15% compared with 8%, together with their significantly better season record, supports the HT/FT selection 1/1: Yunnan to lead at the break and win the match.