Yunnan Yukun vs Tianjin Teda: match statistics

Yunnan Yukun holds a clear advantage: at home they average 3.5 goals per game, record 8 shots on target and maintain a shot conversion around 22%. Tianjin Teda are extremely ineffective away — on average 0 goals scored, only 2.5 shots on target per match and 0% conversion, with no goals scored in any away match (100% of away games without a goal). Defensively the hosts also perform better: Yunnan concedes only 0.5 goals per home game and have 50% clean sheets, whereas Tianjin concede 2.0 goals per away match and have no clean sheets. The difference in quality of chances is confirmed by xG values — home xG is 1.84 versus 1.07 for the visitors away, and xG against is 1.12 versus 1.59, suggesting a hosts’ advantage in creating chances and limiting the opponent. Additionally, Yunnan have won 3 of their last 5 matches and average 1.8 points per game in the last five, while Tianjin have not won in their last 5 (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses) and average 0.4 points per game; therefore I predict a clear victory for the hosts.

I lean toward the 'No' scenario because the away side has a significantly weaker offense: season average goals for Tianjin Teda is 0.0 and 100% of their matches ended with them failing to score, while in the last 5 matches the visitors averaged only 0.6 goals per game. Hosts Yunnan Yukun are in better attacking form, averaging 2.6 goals in their last 5 with an average xG of 1.78, whereas Tianjin Teda conceded an average of 1.6 goals in those fixtures — this suggests the home side will find the net. Seasonal percentages show a dichotomy: the league records 60% BTTS matches, hosts have a seasonal BTTS of 67% and 80% in the last 5, while the visitors have a seasonal BTTS of 0% and only 40% in their last 5. Additionally, the away team’s finishing efficiency is virtually zero — shot conversion 0.0% with an average of 2.5 shots on target per game and an offensive xG of 1.07, indicating they create chances but fail to convert. Taking all this into account, I assess BTTS probability at 35% for 'Yes' and 65% for 'No' — hosts are likely to score, but the visitors’ low efficiency makes a clean sheet for the away side more probable.

I estimate total expected goals at about 2.70: Yunnan Yukun ~1.80 and Tianjin Teda ~0.90. Yunnan shows clear attacking form — averaging 2.6 goals in the last 5 matches with average xG 1.78 and 100% of those five matches exceeding Over 2.5 goals. Tianjin struggles with finishing: in the last 5 matches they average 0.6 goals with xG 0.99, have only 3 goals this season and a 0% conversion rate. Additionally, Yunnan averages 3.0 shots on target versus Tianjin’s 2.5 and has a 14% conversion rate, while the league averages 3.1 goals per game, which increases the likelihood of at least 2 goals in the match. Based on this, the strongest signal is Over 1.5 – our expected goals of 2.70 and the home side’s 100% Over 2.5 record in the last 5 matches provide a clear edge for the Over 1.5 market.

In the last 5 matches the home side averaged 2.6 goals per game and as many as 1.8 goals in the first half, while the visitors averaged 0.6 goals per game and only 0.2 in the first half. The home team led at the break in 60% of these fixtures (3 of 5), and the visitors did not lead in any (0 of 5), which strongly supports an HT result of 1. Additionally, Yunnan won 60% of the last 5 matches versus Tianjin Ted’s 0% win rate, so maintaining the lead until full-time (FT=1) is more likely. Although the visitors’ xG is slightly higher (1.07 vs. the home side’s 0.94), the visitors’ season average goals scored is 0.0 and their shot conversion rate is 0%, indicating finishing problems. Therefore the strongest signal is HT/FT 1/1 (45% probability), with smaller chances for a half-time draw or a turnaround in the second half.