Zagłębie Lubin vs Radomiak Radom: match statistics

Zagłębie Lubin has a clear defensive edge at home — they concede an average of 0.92 goals per home match and possess a +12 goal difference, whereas Radomiak concedes 2.15 goals on the road with a -12 goal difference. Despite similar xG (Zagłębie 1.46 xG at home vs Radomiak 1.48 xG away), the hosts are far more efficient — Zagłębie posts a 16% shot conversion rate and averages 1.85 goals per home game, while Radomiak has only 9% conversion and 1.23 goals per away match. Zagłębie keeps a clean sheet in 38% of home games, compared to Radomiak’s mere 8% of clean sheets on the road, which further favors the hosts. Over the last 5 matches Zagłębie has averaged 1.2 points (2 wins, 3 losses), while Radomiak averages 1.0 point (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses), so form does not favor the visitors either. Considering the hosts’ superior defense, higher efficiency (16% vs 9%) and Radomiak’s poor away record (only 8% wins), I forecast a Zagłębie Lubin victory.

Both teams have high season BTTS rates: Zagłębie 64% and Radomiak 85%, averaging 74.5% versus the league average of 57%. Radomiak concedes 2.15 goals per game on average, while Zagłębie scores 1.93, so the home side has a strong chance to score; the hosts record just 21% clean sheets. Radomiak scores 1.23 goals per game, and Zagłębie concedes 0.93, so the visitors also have realistic scoring chances, especially as Radomiak has only 8% matches without conceding. xG confirms both directions: Zagłębie generates 1.67 xG and Radomiak typically allows 1.79 xG; Radomiak generates 1.48 xG and Zagłębie concedes 1.27 xG, with both teams having 1.26 and 1.28 xG in the last 5 matches and their defenses allowing 1.62 and 1.69 xG. Considering the seasonal BTTS 74.5%, low clean sheet rates (21% and 8%), and xG and goals averages (1.93 and 1.23), I favor the "BTTS - Yes" option and assess the probability of BTTS at 74% versus 26% for "No Goal".

Statistics indicate strong goal potential: Zagłębie scores an average of 1.93 goals per game, Radomiak concedes an average of 2.15 goals, and xG are 1.67 (home) and 1.79 (xG against the visitors), translating to an expected ~1.73 goals for Zagłębie. For Radomiak expected xG is around 1.38 (1.48 xG_for and 1.27 xG_against for the hosts), so I expect a total of ~3.11 goals in the match. Over 1.5 occurred in 86% of Zagłębie’s matches and 92% of Radomiak’s matches (average ~89%), while Over 0.5 is 100% vs 92%; additionally BTTS is 64% (Zagłębie) and 85% (Radomiak), therefore I assign a 90% chance for Over 1.5. Over 2.5 appears in 50% of Zagłębie’s games and 69% of Radomiak’s games (average ~60%), but the combined xG of 3.11 and shot counts (15.29 vs 13.0) boost the probability to about 65%, whereas Over 3.5 has a weaker signal (36% vs 54%, average ~45%). Based on the data the strongest and safest market is therefore Over 1.5.

Zagłębie Lubin holds a clear advantage: they win 50% of their home matches and average 1.93 goals per game versus Radomiak’s 1.23, with xG of 1.67 compared to 1.48. At Half-Time matches most often are level — the hosts led at the break in 4 games (29%), while a draw at Half-Time occurs in 50% of their fixtures; the average goals by Half-Time are 0.79 for Zagłębie vs 0.38 for the visitors. After the break Zagłębie score on average 1.14 goals and concede only 0.36 (net difference +0.78) and have accumulated 25 points in second halves (1.79 pts/half), whereas Radomiak have 0.85 goals scored and 1.23 conceded after Half-Time. Additionally the hosts keep a clean sheet in 64% of second halves and average more shots on target 4.79 vs 3.85 for the visitors, which together with Radomiak’s lower finishing rate (9% conversion) supports a draw at Half-Time and a Zagłębie victory at Full-Time (HT/FT X/1).