Žalgiris vs TransINVEST Vilnius: match statistics

Žalgiris has the advantage in form and game control: in the last 5 matches the home side won 3, drew 1 and lost 1, averaging 2 points per game, while TransINVEST in their last five have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, averaging 1 point per game. At home Žalgiris holds 58% possession, has average xG of 1.55 and scores 1.9 goals per game with 13.7 shots and 4.4 shots on target on average. TransINVEST away averages 12.36 shots, 4.91 on target and a higher shot conversion rate of 17% (versus Žalgiris’ 14%), translating to 2.09 goals per game. Defensively the visitors are slightly more compact on the road (1.27 conceded and xG against 1.25) than Žalgiris at home (1.6 conceded and xG against 1.41), and the overall goals average is 3.5 for the hosts and 3.36 for the visitors, which points to an open game. Considering Žalgiris’ superior form and control but also TransINVEST’s shooting efficiency, I tip a home win; I assess the probabilities as 50% for Žalgiris, 25% for a draw and 25% for TransINVEST.

Both teams show high season BTTS rates: Žalgiris 60% and TransINVEST 64%, both above the league average 49%, which increases the likelihood of both sides scoring. TransINVEST is more productive offensively — averaging 2.09 goals per match vs 1.3 for Žalgiris — and also has higher shot conversion (17% vs 10%) and more shots on target (4.91 vs 3.4), boosting the probability of their goal. Bilateral xG are very close (1.42 for Žalgiris vs 1.45 for TransINVEST), with xG against 1.22 vs 1.25, so both teams create and concede chances at a similar level. Although Žalgiris has more clean sheets (40% vs 27%) and concedes 1.0 goal on average in the last 5 matches, the visitors’ last 5 matches ended BTTS in 80% of cases versus 40% for the home side, therefore the edge is with BTTS - Yes.

Estimated xG (attack average and opponent xG) gives 1.34 for Žalgiris ((1.42+1.25)/2) and 1.34 for TransINVEST ((1.45+1.22)/2), totaling ~2.68 expected goals. Both teams show strong signals for Over 1.5: Žalgiris has seasonOver15 70%, TransINVEST 91%, and in the last 5 matches Žalgiris scored on average 1.6 and conceded 1.0, while TransINVEST scored 1.2 and conceded 1.4. TransINVEST has a season goals average of 2.09, higher shot efficiency (conversion 17% vs 10%) and more shots on target (4.91 vs 3.4), and both teams have BTTS at 60% and 64% respectively, increasing the likelihood of additional goals. Considering the expected 2.68 goals, the high Over 1.5 percentages (70%/91%) and recent Over 2.5 runs (last5: 80% for Žalgiris, 60% for TransINVEST), I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 also makes sense (~72%), while Over 3.5 remains risky (~38%).

The most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a TransINVEST win at full-time (X/2) — in the last 5 matches for both teams a half-time draw occurred in 80% of cases (last 5 matches: 80% for home side and 80% for away). TransINVEST has better full-match metrics: 55% wins this season and on average 2.09 goals scored per game versus Žalgiris’s 1.3, more shots on target (4.91 vs 3.4) and a higher conversion rate of 17% versus 10%. After the break TransINVEST also dominates — on average scoring 1.09 goals in the second half compared to the home side’s 0.5 and with 36% second-half wins versus Žalgiris’s 20%, which suggests a turnaround after half-time. The xG of both teams is similar (1.42 for Žalgiris and 1.45 for TransINVEST), so the visitors’ advantage is mainly due to higher efficiency and greater activity after the break; additionally Žalgiris have 80% clean sheets at half-time, which explains the high likelihood of an HT draw.