Zamalek vs Al Ahly: match statistics

Zamalek have won their last five matches, scoring 11 goals and conceding just 2, while Al Ahly have recorded four wins and a draw, with a 9:3 goal difference. The hosts have won 67% of their home matches and concede an average of just 0.33 goals there, giving them a slight edge heading into this match. However, Al Ahly pose a serious threat: away from home, they average 4.5 shots on target, compared with Zamalek’s 3.67 at home, and their xG stands at 1.40 against the hosts’ 1.24. The visitors also allow chances worth 0.88 xG per match on the road, while Zamalek’s opponents average 1.66 xG at the hosts’ ground, suggesting Zamalek may find it difficult to maintain their defensive record. Both teams remain unbeaten this season, so despite the lean towards Zamalek, a draw is also a realistic outcome.

The strongest signal points to at least one team failing to score: Zamalek kept a clean sheet in 67% of matches, while Al Ahly did so in 50%. Across their last five games, the teams conceded an average of just 0.4 and 0.6 goals, respectively, and both teams scored in only 40% of their matches. The league context also supports this pick: both teams find the net in 38% of matches, with an average of 2.06 goals per game. There is still significant risk, as both sides have scored in every match they have played so far, and their average xG figures are 2.13 and 1.40, respectively. Despite this attacking strength, the low number of goals conceded gives a slight edge to BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in any of Al Ahly’s matches to date or in 67% of Zamalek’s matches. Both defenses concede relatively few goals on average—0.67 and 0.50, respectively—which limits the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. In their last five matches, Zamalek conceded an average of 0.4 goals and Al Ahly 0.6; meanwhile, Over 2.5 goals landed in 60% and 20% of their matches, respectively. Their attacking potential remains significant, as the teams average 2.0 and 1.5 goals scored, making the 2.5 line a less clear-cut option. A projected total of 2.2 goals and the league average of 2.06 support the safer choice of the 3.5-goal line.

Zamalek led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and did not concede a single first-half goal in those games, while Al Ahly were trailing at half-time in 2 of their 5 fixtures. At home, the hosts create chances worth an average of 2.13 xG, compared with the visitors’ 1.40 xG away, and average 7.33 shots on target against their opponents’ 4.5. Zamalek’s perfect record of 5 wins in their last 5 matches, along with an average of 1.33 goals scored at home after the break, supports the case for them to hold onto their lead. However, the risk is significant, as Al Ahly have won the second half in all 5 of their last matches, making a half-time draw followed by a Zamalek win a strong alternative. Overall, the hosts’ advantage in chance creation and their frequent early leads make 1/1 the most likely HT/FT outcome.