Zamora vs Deportivo Táchira: match statistics

Deportivo Táchira sit 2nd and have won 14 of their 24 matches this season, while Zamora have just 6 victories from 18 games. Current form clearly favors the visitors: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches and scored 11 goals in the process, whereas Zamora have suffered 4 defeats, scoring only 4 goals and conceding 11. Away from home, Táchira create more danger, averaging 14 shots and 5.09 shots on target per match, compared with Zamora’s 13 shots and 4.11 shots on target at home. The visitors also have a higher average xG, 1.53 to 1.39, while the hosts fail to score in 33% of their home matches, compared with 17% for Táchira. Both defenses concede an average of 1 goal per match in these conditions, but the visitors’ superior current efficiency and chance quality make them the stronger pick to win.

The seasonal percentage of matches in which both teams scored stands at 58% for both Zamora and Deportivo Táchira, above the league average of 52%. Zamora average 1.58 goals per match, while Deportivo Táchira average 1.42, with both teams also recording a low 17% rate of matches without scoring. Recent form clearly favors the visitors: they have scored 2.2 goals per match, while Zamora have conceded as many as 2.2, with Táchira’s xG at 1.92 compared with the 1.93 xG allowed by the hosts. A weaker argument for BTTS is Zamora’s recent attacking output, with just 0.8 goals and 1.08 xG across their last five matches, although Táchira conceded 1.2 goals per match during that period. The most likely outcome therefore remains at least one goal for each side, although the BTTS edge is moderate.

Deportivo Táchira are in clearly better form: they have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last 5 matches, while Zamora have conceded 2.2 goals per game over the same period. Nevertheless, the full-season profile limits the risk of a very high-scoring outcome, as both teams have conceded an average of just 0.92 and 1.00 goals per match, respectively. The 3.5-goal line has not been exceeded in 67% of Zamora’s matches and 75% of Táchira’s, while Over 2.5 goals has landed for both teams in exactly 50% of cases. The estimated xG supports the prospect of goals, particularly for the away side, with Táchira recording 1.53 compared to Zamora’s 1.08 xG conceded, but it does not clearly point to four goals. Therefore, Under 3.5 goals offers the strongest edge: scorelines of 1:1, 1:2, or 0:2 are well supported by the defensive data and the historical frequency of these outcomes.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Zamora were level at the break in 67% of their home matches, compared with 45% of Deportivo Táchira’s away fixtures, while averaging just 1.00 and 1.09 first-half goals respectively. However, current form clearly favors the visitors: they have won four of their last five matches and averaged 2.2 goals, whereas Zamora have suffered four defeats, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.2 goals per game. In the first halves of those matches, Zamora scored only 0.4 goals and conceded 1.0, while Táchira recorded averages of 0.75 scored and 0.75 conceded, supporting a cautious draw at half-time. After the break, the visitors’ superior form should prove decisive: they have averaged 1.25 goals in the second half across their last five matches, while the hosts won the second half in 0% of those games and lost it in 80% of cases. Zamora’s season-long strengths, including an xG of 1.82 compared with their opponents’ 1.53, reduce confidence in the pick, but do not offset the current disparity in results.