Zamora vs Rayo Zuliano: match statistics

Zamora are unbeaten in their last five matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, scoring 10 goals and conceding just 4. Over the same period, Rayo Zuliano scored only 4 goals and suffered 3 defeats in five games, which significantly reduces their chances away from home. The hosts create more chances at home, averaging 14.33 shots and 4.17 shots on target per match, compared with the visitors’ 10 shots and 3.14 shots on target away from home. Zamora’s advantage is also evident in the quality of their chances, with an average xG of 1.50, while Rayo Zuliano generate just 1.05 xG and allow opponents 1.85 xG. The visitors concede an average of 2 goals per away match, have kept no clean sheets and have lost 57% of such games, making a Zamora victory the most likely outcome.

The No Goal scenario is slightly more likely, primarily due to Rayo Zuliano’s poor current scoring efficiency: they have scored only 4 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.8 per game. During the same period, Zamora conceded just 0.8 goals per match, while their last five results produced BTTS in 80% of cases; however, this was supported by excellent home form, with the hosts scoring 10 goals. Rayo Zuliano’s average xG across their last five matches is indeed 1.35, but their season-long scoring rate stands at only 1.0 goal per game, and they have failed to score in 43% of their matches. The hosts should be able to exploit the fact that their opponents have not kept a single clean sheet and concede an average of 2.0 goals, but the greater risk to BTTS remains the visitors’ attacking response. The season-long BTTS figures—50% for Zamora and 57% for Rayo Zuliano—are close to the league average of 53%, but Zamora’s current defensive profile shifts the assessment towards “No”.

Zamora are in clearly better attacking form: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged 2.0 goals scored, with 1.69 xG, while Rayo Zuliano have conceded 1.4 goals per game during this period. The visitors have failed to keep a clean sheet all season, and their average of 2.0 goals conceded is higher than the hosts’ 1.5. The 1.5 line was exceeded in 86% of Rayo Zuliano’s matches and in 50% of Zamora’s, while only 14% of the visitors’ games ended with no more than one goal. The projected total of 2.60 goals provides a solid edge for Over 1.5, whereas the 2.5 line remains considerably more balanced.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point, as Rayo Zuliano were level at the break in 57% of their matches, while in their last five games both teams recorded a 40% draw rate at this stage. Zamora, however, have looked significantly stronger after the interval: across their last five matches, they averaged 1.0 goals scored and just 0.4 conceded in the second half, whereas Rayo scored only 0.2 goals during that period. The home side are unbeaten in their last five league fixtures, with a record of 2 wins and 3 draws and an average of 1.8 points per match, while the visitors have lost 3 of their 5 games and collected just 0.8 points per match. Zamora’s advantage is also reflected in their current goalscoring output: 2.0 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, compared with Rayo’s 0.8 scored and 1.4 conceded. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a closely contested first half, followed by a turnaround in favor of the home side after the break.