Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Flota Świnoujście: match statistics

Zawisza Bydgoszcz is the clear favorite: they have 20 wins this season and win 86% of home matches with 0% defeats, scoring an average of 2.57 goals and conceding only 0.43 goals per game. In the last 5 fixtures Zawisza scored 12 goals, won 4 of 5 and averages 2.4 points per game, while Flota has only 1 win, 8 goals scored, averages 0.8 points per game and conceded as many as 15 goals in that period. In terms of chance quality the hosts have a clear edge: Zawisza generates 1.99 xG on average at home and registers 7.08 shots on target per game, whereas Flota away posts 1.13 xG and only 3.45 shots on target. Defensively Zawisza keeps 64% clean sheets at home and allows 1.07 xG against, while Flota concedes on average 1.86 goals away and has only 21% clean sheets, therefore I back the home win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators favor a both-teams-to-score scenario: Zawisza has 57% BTTS matches, Flota 64%, versus a league average of 53%. In the last 5 matches Flota recorded 80% BTTS and Zawisza 40%; concurrently Zawisza scored 12 goals in those 5 games (2.4 avg), while Flota conceded 15 goals (3.0 avg), increasing the likelihood of goals at both ends. Zawisza generates 1.4 xG and averages 5.33 shots on target, with 61 goals scored and 20 conceded this season; Flota has 1.13 xG, 43 conceded and 43 scored and averages 1.57 goals per game—providing realistic chances for both sides to score. Additionally, clean sheets occur in only 29% of Zawisza’s matches and 21% of Flota’s matches, and the combination of over 2.5 goals and BTTS appears in 50% of home games and 56% of away games, which further supports BTTS. Considering the above (seasonal BTTS ~57/64%, Flota’s strong recent 80% trend and 43 goals conceded by the away side), I recommend BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of about 66%.

Based on xG: Zawisza has xG 1.40 per match, Flota 1.13; average xG against is 1.91 for Flota and 1.43 for Zawisza, which when averaged gives expected 1.66 goals for the home side and 1.28 for the away side, total 2.94. Season metrics show a strong goal trend: Over 1.5 occurred in 71% of Zawisza’s matches and 79% of Flota’s matches, while Over 2.5 occurred in 57% of cases for both teams (league average is 56% Over 2.5). In the last 5 matches Zawisza scores on average 2.4 goals (12 goals in 5 matches), and Flota concedes on average 3.0 goals (15 conceded), which boosts the probability of Over 2.5. Zawisza averages 5.33 shots on target versus Flota’s 3.45, both teams have 17% conversion, and BTTS occurs in 57% and 64% of matches respectively — an additional argument for goals from both sides. Therefore I recommend Over 1.5 as the strongest signal (over), while Over 2.5 appears moderately likely and Over 3.5 less likely.

The most likely HT/FT scenario is 1/1 (home team leads at the break and wins) — I assess it at 36%. In the last five matches Zawisza won 4 of 5 (80%) and led at the break in 2 of 5 (40%), while Flota has only 1 win in the last five (20%) and led at the break once (20%). Zawisza has higher xG (1.40 versus Flota’s 1.13) and more shots (averaging 11.67 and 5.33 on target vs. the visitors’ 9.00 and 3.45), indicating an advantage in chance creation. In the second half Zawisza in the last five matches scores on average 1.4 goals and concedes 0.4, whereas Flota concedes on average 1.6 goals in second halves, so the hosts have a greater likelihood of maintaining or extending the lead. Additionally, Zawisza has 67% clean halves at the break and averages 2.4 points per game in the last five matches versus Flota’s 0.8 points, which reinforces the 1/1 scenario as the strongest (the alternative is X/1 with approximately a 22% chance if the score is level at half-time).