Zemun vs Partizan: match statistics

Partizan holds a clear advantage based on the numbers: they sit 6th in the table versus Zemun in 12th. In the last 5 matches the visitors have scored 8 and conceded 5, while the hosts have scored 7 and conceded 7, indicating better defensive efficiency for Partizan. Recent form over 5 matches shows Partizan with 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss, and Zemun with 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses; average points per game in that period are 1.6 versus 1.4 for Zemun. The lack of detailed home/away stats (many fields = 0) limits assessment of home advantage, but the superiority in goals conceded (5 vs 7) and the higher league position favor the visitors. I predict a Partizan win.

In the last 5 matches Zemun scores on average 1.4 and concedes 1.4, while Partizan scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0, which suggests both teams regularly feature in scoring games. The away xG is 1.84 versus 0.97 for Zemun, meaning Partizan has a clear advantage in creating quality chances and should score at least once. Zemun has 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches vs 40% for Partizan, and goal tallies of 7 scored/7 conceded (Zemun) and 8 scored/5 conceded (Partizan) further support the Both Teams To Score option. Zemun’s average concessions of 1.4 against Partizan’s average goals of 1.6, combined with the xG gap, make the Goal/Goal scenario more likely, so I assign it a 65% probability.

Form analysis from the last 5 matches shows Zemun scores on average 1.4 goals and concedes 1.4, while Partizan scores 1.6 and concedes 1.0; in raw numbers that is 7 scored and 7 conceded for Zemun and 8 scored and 5 conceded for Partizan. xG values confirm the visitors' advantage: xG for Zemun is 0.97 and for Partizan 1.84, with xG against at 1.35 (Zemun) and 1.28 (Partizan). Averaging the home attack (0.97) with the away defense (1.28) yields 1.13 expected goals for Zemun, and averaging the away attack (1.84) with the home defense (1.35) gives 1.60 for Partizan, totaling 2.73 expected goals. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams have gone over 2.5 goals in 60% of games, which combined with the calculated xG strongly supports an Over 2.5 goals bet. Therefore I recommend backing the Over 2.5 line as the strongest signal.

In the last 5 matches Zemun led at the break in 20% of games (1 of 5), while Partizan led at the break in 40% (2 of 5), with a half-time draw occurring for the home side in 60% and for the away side in 40% of matches. Partizan has a higher average goals by half-time of 1.0 versus Zemun’s 0.6 and a lower average goals conceded by half-time of 0.4 versus 0.8, which suggests an advantage for the visitors in the first half. Additionally, in 4 of the 5 matches for both sides at least 1 goal was scored by half-time (80%), and Partizan’s half-time goal difference over the last 5 matches is +3, increasing the probability of the visitors leading after 45 minutes. Based on this, the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at half-time and winning the match (HT/FT '2/2' estimated ~24%), with the second-strongest signal being a half-time draw and a visitors’ victory (X/2 ~20%).