Zemun vs Radnički Niš: match statistics

I predict an away win (2). Radnički Niš has won 3 of the last 5 matches and averages 1.8 points per game over that span, while Zemun has just 1 win and 0.8 points per game. Zemun has conceded 12 goals in their last five matches (2.4 per game) and concedes on average 2 goals per home game, whereas Radnički has conceded 6 in the last 5 (1.2 per game) and also averages 2 conceded on the road. In terms of chance quality, the home xG at their matches is 1.38 with xG against 2.80, while the visitors’ xG is 1.42 with xG against 1.35, indicating better control and lower defensive vulnerability for the away side. Additionally, Radnički averages 55% possession with 9 shots and 3 on target, versus the home side’s 32% possession and 13 shots, so greater ball control and stronger recent form point to an away victory.

The strongest signal for BTTS - Yes is that Radnički Niš have recorded 100% away matches with both teams scoring, and 100% of away matches with both BTTS and over 2.5, while in the last 5 meetings between the two sides BTTS occurred in 60% of cases. Zemun have conceded on average 2.4 goals in their last 5 matches (12 goals conceded in 5 games) and have an average xG against of 2.0 over that period, increasing the likelihood the opponent will score. The home side generate xG 1.75 and average 16 shots per match versus 9 for the visitors, with both teams averaging 3 shots on target, so both sides create goal-scoring opportunities. The counterargument is the league context: BTTS occurrence in the league is only 38% with 77% of matches ending in a clean sheet, which reduces overall confidence in the forecast. Considering the very strong away signal from Radnički (100%), positive xG figures for both teams and Zemun’s defensive frailty in the last five matches, I assess BTTS Yes at 65% vs 35% and recommend selecting Yes as the best bet.

Based on xG I expect Zemun to score around 1.55 goals (home attack xG 1.75 vs average xG conceded to visitors 1.35 → average 1.55), and Radnički Niš around 1.36 goals (away attack xG 1.42 vs average xG conceded to hosts 1.30 → average 1.36), giving a combined ~2.91 goals. Seasonal data show both teams had 100% of matches over 1.5 goals, which strongly supports Over 1.5 and justifies an estimated ~95% probability. For the 2.5 line data are mixed: seasonally Zemun has 0% of matches over 2.5, Radnički 100%, but in the last 5 matches Zemun has 100% Over 2.5, Radnički 60%, and the combined xG in the last 5 is 0.89+1.63=2.52 with 12 total goals (avg 2.4), so I assess Over 2.5 at about 70%. The 3.5 line appears less likely because the combined xG 2.91 is well below 3.5; despite the home advantage in shots (16 vs 9) and higher attacking xG, the conversion gap (home 0% vs away 11%) limits the chances of 4+ goals, so I rate Under 3.5 at ~75%. As a result the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (recommendation: over 1.5), with a secondary case for Over 2.5 based on combined xG 2.91 and recent form.

The key signal comes from half-time statistics: the home team averages 0.0 goals scored at half-time and 2.0 conceded (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.0, concededAVGHT_home = 2.0), while the away team averages 1.0 scored and 1.0 conceded by half-time (scoredAVGHT_away = 1.0, concededAVGHT_away = 1.0). Form confirms the advantage for the visitors — in the last 5 matches they won 60% of games versus 20% for the hosts (last5_winPercentage_overall_away = 60.0 vs last5_winPercentage_overall_home = 20.0), and the home side trailed at the break in 60% of cases (last5_trailingAtHTPercentage_overall_home = 60.0). Although the hosts generate higher xG and more shots (xG 1.75 vs 1.42 and 16 shots vs 9), their conversion rate is 0% compared to 11% for the away team (xg_for_avg_home = 1.75, xg_for_avg_away = 1.42; shotsAVG_home = 16, shotsAVG_away = 9; shot_conversion_rate_home = 0.0, shot_conversion_rate_away = 11.0), indicating finishing inefficiency. As a result the most likely scenario is the visitors leading at the break and winning at full-time: I assign 35% to 2/2 and 30% to X/2, i.e. 65% in total for an away win after 90 minutes. I assign a low probability to the home team winning both at half-time and full-time (e.g. 1/1 = 3%, 1/X = 2%), due to the season average of 0.0 goals for the hosts and 100% losses in the available data (seasonScoredAVG_home = 0.0, losePercentage_home = 100.0).