Zhenys vs Irtysh: match statistics

Zhenys has a clear defensive edge at home: they concede an average of 0.83 goals per home match and keep a clean sheet in 50% of home games, while Irtysh concedes 1.71 goals on average away and has not recorded any clean sheets on the road. Visitors generate more attempts — on average 12.29 shots and 5.43 shots on target away — and have a higher xG at 1.50, yet they only score 1.00 goal on average away and remain goalless in 43% of away fixtures, indicating finishing issues. Hosts at home average 9.83 shots with 2.33 on target, have xG 1.13 and score 0.83 goals per match, with a shot conversion around 8% and possession of 44%, pointing to a defensive style and efficiency in limiting opponents. In the last 5 matches Zhenys won 2 of 5 (0 draws, 3 losses) and collected an average of 1.2 points per game, while Irtysh have not won in their last 5 (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses) and average 0.6 points per game, which favors the hosts. Considering the hosts’ superior defense (0.83 goals conceded), the visitors’ lack of away wins (0% away wins) and Irtysh’s poor finishing (43% of away games without a goal), I predict a Zhenys victory; I assess probabilities at approximately 60% for the home side, 25% for a draw and 15% for the visitors.

Both teams have season BTTS rates: Zhenys 67% and Irtysh 57%, averaging ~62%, which is above the league level of 52%, so the first signal favors both teams scoring. From a chance-creation standpoint Irtysh averages 5.43 shots on target and has offensive xG 1.50, while Zhenys has 3.83 shots on target and offensive xG 1.29; both teams also concede a lot of chances (xG against 1.74 for Irtysh and 1.44 for Zhenys). In the last 5 matches both sides had BTTS at 60% and 60%, and average goals in that period are 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded for the home side and 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded for the away side (Zhenys 6-6, Irtysh 5-8), which confirms the ability of both teams to score and to concede. Additionally, the percentage of clean sheets is only 17% for Zhenys and 0% for Irtysh, and shot conversion rates are 9% versus 8%, so a clean sheet is unlikely. Considering the average BTTS ~62%, low clean sheets (17% and 0%) and xG against above 1.4 for both teams, I tip BTTS - Yes with a probability of 70% versus 30% for No Goal.

The model based on combined xG indicates 1.52 expected goals for Zhenys (attack xG 1.29 vs Irtysh defense 1.74) and 1.47 for Irtysh (attack xG 1.50 vs Zhenys defense 1.44), totaling 2.99 goals. With aggregate xG = 2.99, a Poisson distribution yields roughly an 80% probability of Over 1.5 goals (chance of 0–1 goals ≈20%) and about 57% for Over 2.5 goals. Seasonal metrics support these figures: Zhenys has Over 1.5 in 67% of matches, Irtysh in 71%, and both teams record BTTS at 67% and 57% respectively, increasing the likelihood of at least one goal from each side. Irtysh averages 5.43 shots on target with xG 1.50, Zhenys 3.83 SoT with xG 1.29; additionally Irtysh concedes 1.71 goals per game versus Zhenys 1.17, which favors goal production. Based on this, the strongest recommendation is Over 1.5 — high probability ~80%, combined xG 2.99 and seasonal Over rates 67%/71% support choosing Over 1.5.

The strongest half-time signal indicates a draw: Irtysh were level at the break in 71% of matches and never held a lead at half-time (71% vs 0%), so the most likely Half-Time outcome is a draw. Zhenys average 0.5 goals scored by half-time and concede 0.67 by half-time (scoredAVGHT_home = 0.5, concededAVGHT_home = 0.67), while Irtysh have only 0.14 goals by half-time, confirming a low first-half goal count (AVGHT_home = 1.17). After 90 minutes a draw also appears logical: Irtysh have yet to win this season (winPercentage_away = 0%), Zhenys have just a 17% win rate, and draws occur in 50% of home matches and 43% of away matches. Additionally, 67% of Zhenys’ matches end with both teams scoring, and Irtysh have 86% of matches with a second-half goal (over05_2hg_percentage_away = 86%), which points to a scoring draw (e.g. 1-1) as the most probable Full-Time scenario.