Žilina vs FK Košice: match statistics

I project an away win (2). Košice sit 3rd in the table while Žilina are 12th, giving the visitors a clear seasonal advantage. In the last 5 matches both teams have recorded 2 wins and average 1.2 points per game, indicating similar short-term form. In attack Košice scored 7 goals in their last 5 matches versus Žilina’s 5, but defensively the visitors conceded 11 goals compared to 8 for the hosts, which reduces their edge. Taking into account the higher position and superior offensive efficiency of the visitors, I assign them a 45% probability, the hosts 30%, and a draw 25%.

Recent 5-match statistics favor a BTTS scenario: FK Košice have BTTS in 80% of matches, while Žilina only 40%. In the last 5 fixtures Žilina scored 5 and conceded 8 goals (avg. 1.0 scored, 1.6 conceded per match), whereas Košice scored 7 and conceded 11 (avg. 1.4 scored, 2.2 conceded). xG values confirm the open nature of these games — last 5 xG for Žilina are 1.13 vs 1.55 for Košice, and xG against are 1.45 vs 1.91. Higher BTTS rate (80% vs 40%) and Košice’s larger average goals conceded (2.2 vs 1.6) indicate both teams are likely to score, so I recommend a BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability of 70%.

Analysis of the last 5 matches shows Žilina averaged 1.0 goals scored and conceded 1.6, while FK Košice averaged 1.4 goals scored and conceded 2.2; xG confirms this: Žilina 1.13 (attack) and 1.45 (defense), Košice 1.55 (attack) and 1.91 (defense). For the projection I used the attack and defense averages: for the home side (1.13 + 1.91)/2 = 1.52, for the away side (1.55 + 1.45)/2 = 1.50, totaling 3.02 expected goals. Additionally, Košice had 100% of their last 5 matches over 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS, while Žilina had 40% over 2.5 and 40% BTTS — this increases the likelihood of a high-scoring game. A Poisson model with a sum of 3.02 yields roughly 80% chance of Over 1.5 goals, about 58% for Over 2.5 goals and about 36% for Over 3.5 goals, therefore the strongest signal is Over 1.5. I recommend betting Over 1.5 with an expected scoreline of 1.52–1.50 as the best and safest choice.

Analysis of the last five matches shows that the visitors (FK Košice) scored 10 first-half goals (an average of 2.0 per match), while the hosts (Žilina) had 8 first-half goals (an average of 1.6); the visitors led at the break in 40% of those matches, the hosts in 0%. In the second half the hosts improve efficiency — they score an average of 0.6 goals, while the visitors concede an average of 1.2 goals after the break, which increases Žilina’s chances of a turnaround. Over whole matches the visitors have a higher goals-for average of 1.4 with 2.2 conceded, the hosts 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, and total match goal averages are 3.6 for away fixtures versus 2.6 for home, indicating open games with more goals. Considering the 40% of visitors leading at half-time and the relatively high number of visitor goals conceded after the break (1.2), the most likely and strongest signal is visitors leading at half-time and a draw at full-time (HT/FT = 2/X).