Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF: match statistics
Lugazi Municipal clearly outperforms UPDF in the context of home fixtures, achieving a 43% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5). The hosts average 1.71 goals scored per home game while conceding just 1, demonstrating a solid defensive setup. Conversely, UPDF displays very poor away form with a 63% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per match and holding a negative goal difference (-9). The visitors' last five games have been a catastrophic run yielding just one point (0.2 PPG), whereas Lugazi maintains more stable form. Given the hosts' advantage on home turf and UPDF's dismal away performance, a Lugazi Municipal victory is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a viable option due to the hosts' moderate scoring efficiency.
Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Lugazi Municipal play UPDF in Uganda Premier League (Uganda). The match date is 18 February 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Lugazi Municipal: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. UPDF: 0-1-4, 0.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Lugazi Municipal scores 0.63 and concedes 1.20 goals per match. UPDF scores 0.80 and concedes 1.37. League average: 2.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Lugazi Municipal 30%, UPDF 40%. Over 2.5: Lugazi Municipal 37%, UPDF 40%. League level: BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
xG, shots and style
UPDF has higher xG: 1.53 vs 1.28. Lugazi Municipal: 8.2 shots per match, UPDF: 10.8.
Match halves
Lugazi Municipal: half-time lead 20%, second-half goals 0.30. UPDF: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Lugazi Municipal: 76-90+ (9 goals). UPDF: 31-45+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Uganda Premier League: 2.09 goals per match, BTTS 38%, Over 2.5 35%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Match description
Lugazi Municipal clearly outperforms UPDF in the context of home fixtures, achieving a 43% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5). The hosts average 1.71 goals scored per home game while conceding just 1, demonstrating a solid defensive setup. Conversely, UPDF displays very poor away form with a 63% loss rate, conceding an average of 2.13 goals per match and holding a negative goal difference (-9). The visitors' last five games have been a catastrophic run yielding just one point (0.2 PPG), whereas Lugazi maintains more stable form. Given the hosts' advantage on home turf and UPDF's dismal away performance, a Lugazi Municipal victory is the most probable scenario, although a draw remains a viable option due to the hosts' moderate scoring efficiency.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Lugazi Municipal | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 26% | 29% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.16 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.26 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lugazi Municipal is 400% better for: last-5 form.
1 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal · 0.2 pts / match - UPDF
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
UPDF is 27% better for: goals scored per match.
0.63 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal · 0.8 goals / match - UPDF
Lugazi Municipal is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.2 goals / match - Lugazi Municipal · 1.37 goals / match - UPDF
Lugazi Municipal scores in 37% of matches (11 of 30 matches), while UPDF keeps a clean sheet in 27% (8 of 30 matches).
UPDF scores in 50% of matches (15 of 30 matches), while Lugazi Municipal keeps a clean sheet in 33% (10 of 30 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Lugazi Municipal
Over / Under — UPDF
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lugazi Municipal is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.1 pts / match - Lugazi Municipal · 0.87 pts / match - UPDF
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Lugazi Municipal - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 20% of matches and wins 17%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
UPDF - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 80% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (9 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): -7 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Lugazi Municipal
UPDF
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Uganda Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Lugazi Municipal | Liga | UPDF | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.83 | 2.09 | • 2.17 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 30% | 38% | ▲ 40% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 37% | 35% | ▲ 40% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 33% | 39% | ▼ 27% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 53% | 59% | • 60% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 57% | 62% | ▲ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Lugazi Municipal 0 - 0 - 1 UPDF. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF?
The Uganda Premier League match finished Lugazi Municipal 1:0 UPDF. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF?
Lugazi Municipal score 0.63 goals per game on average and UPDF 0.80. The Uganda Premier League average is 2.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 35% of games. Both teams score in 30% of Lugazi Municipal's matches and 40% of UPDF's.
What form are Lugazi Municipal and UPDF in?
Over the last 5 games Lugazi Municipal have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and UPDF 0-1-4 (0.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Lugazi Municipal vs UPDF: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.