Nacional vs Progreso: match statistics
Full analysis and pick in the app
Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.
Nacional vs Progreso: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Nacional play Progreso in Primera División (Uruguay). The match date is 25 July 2026 at 00:30. Venue: Estadio Gran Parque Central.
Current form
Nacional: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Progreso: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
Nacional scores 1.52 and concedes 1.33 goals per match. Progreso scores 0.81 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.41 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Nacional 57%, Progreso 43%. Over 2.5: Nacional 67%, Progreso 43%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Nacional has higher xG: 1.50 vs 1.16. Nacional: 11.9 shots per match, Progreso: 8.5.
Match halves
Nacional: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.86. Progreso: half-time lead 14%, second-half goals 0.43.
Goals by minute
Nacional: 31-45+ (7 goals). Progreso: 76-90+ (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Primera División: 2.41 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
4 H2H matches: 4-0-0. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 50%.
Before the match
1X2 odds
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Nacional | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.14 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.25 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Nacional is 17% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Nacional · 1.2 pts / match - Progreso
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Nacional is 88% better for: goals scored per match.
1.52 goals / match - Nacional · 0.81 goals / match - Progreso
Nacional is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.33 goals / match - Nacional · 1.52 goals / match - Progreso
Nacional scores in 81% of matches (17 of 21 matches), while Progreso keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 21 matches).
Progreso scores in 52% of matches (11 of 21 matches), while Nacional keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Nacional
Over / Under — Progreso
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Nacional is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.24 pts / match - Nacional · 0.76 pts / match - Progreso
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Nacional - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 48%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Progreso - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 14% of matches and wins 19%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 100% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (6 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Nacional
Progreso
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Primera División).
Teams vs league
| Nacional | Liga | Progreso | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.86 | 2.41 | • 2.33 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 57% | 52% | ▼ 43% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 46% | ▼ 43% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 27% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 67% | 69% | ▲ 81% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 86% | 73% | ▼ 71% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): Nacional 4 - 0 - 0 Progreso. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
When do Nacional and Progreso play?
Nacional face Progreso on 24 July 2026 in Primera División at Estadio Gran Parque Central. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.
What is the head-to-head record between Nacional and Progreso?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches Nacional won 4, Progreso won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Nacional vs Progreso?
Nacional score 1.52 goals per game on average and Progreso 0.81. The Primera División average is 2.41 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 57% of Nacional's matches and 43% of Progreso's.
What form are Nacional and Progreso in?
Over the last 5 games Nacional have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Progreso 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Nacional vs Progreso?
The statistical background for Nacional vs Progreso — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.