07 Vestur vs KÍ: match statistics

KÍ sit 2nd in the league, while 07 Vestur are ninth, and the overall season record clearly favors the visitors: 11 wins and just 2 defeats compared with the hosts’ 5 wins and 13 losses. Away from home, KÍ average 2.3 goals per match with an xG of 2.21, whereas 07 Vestur concede as many as 2.5 goals at home and allow opponents an xG of 1.80. The visitors create significantly more danger, averaging 18.1 shots and 7.1 shots on target per game, compared with the hosts’ 12.8 shots and 3.8 shots on target. Both teams have similar form over their last five matches, with each recording 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats, but KÍ remain unbeaten away from home and have a positive goal difference of +13. 07 Vestur may take advantage of the fact that KÍ draw 50% of their away matches; however, the visitors’ superiority in chance quality, possession (60% to 48%) and finishing efficiency points to an away win.

KÍ has a seasonal BTTS rate of 70%, clearly above 07 Vestur’s 45% and the league average of 55%, which supports the case for both teams to score. The hosts recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, conceding an average of 1.4 goals with opponents posting an xG of 1.53. KÍ possesses a very strong attack: it scores an average of 2.30 goals, generates an xG of 2.21, and records 7.1 shots on target per match, so it should be able to exploit 07 Vestur’s defensive gaps. The visitors’ chances of scoring are realistic, as KÍ keeps a clean sheet in only 30% of matches and allowed opponents an xG of 1.62 across its last five fixtures. The BTTS - Yes pick holds a moderate edge, although caution is warranted due to 07 Vestur’s strong seasonal defensive record, with the team conceding only 0.82 goals on average.

KÍ have very strong attacking potential: they average 2.30 goals per game this season, generate 2.21 xG, and record 7.10 shots on target per match. At home, 07 Vestur also generate 1.62 xG and average 1.73 goals scored, although their solid defense, conceding just 0.82 goals per game, limits the projection for a higher total. Over 1.5 goals has landed in 73% of 07 Vestur’s matches and 80% of KÍ’s games, while in their last five matches, both teams recorded at least three goals in 60% of their respective fixtures. However, the strongest signal is for Over 1.5, as the expected total of 2.83 goals provides a clear margin above this line, whereas Over 3.5 remains significantly less likely.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a KÍ win at the final whistle, as both teams were level after 45 minutes in 80% of their last five matches. During this period, KÍ scored just 0.2 goals per match before the break and kept a clean sheet in the first half in 100% of their outings, which supports a cautious opening. Over the full match, however, KÍ have greater attacking potential: their average xG is 2.21 compared with the hosts’ 1.62, while their shots on target average 7.1 versus 3.73. After the break, the visitors score an average of 1.2 goals and concede just 0.3, whereas 07 Vestur score 0.73 and concede 0.73 goals. KÍ have not lost any second half of a match this season, while the hosts have lost this part of the game in 45% of cases, further strengthening the X/2 option.