2 de Mayo vs Guaraní: match statistics

2 de Mayo come into this fixture in clearly better form: they have collected 13 points from their last 5 matches, winning 4 times and conceding just 4 goals. Over the same period, Guaraní recorded 2 wins and 2 defeats, scoring only 6 goals. At home, the hosts concede an average of 0.93 goals per match, while Guaraní allow opponents 1.08 goals per away game and have a higher average xG against them, 1.35 compared with 1.20. The visitors produce slightly more shots on target away from home, 3.31 compared with the hosts’ 2.79, but they fail to score in as many as 38% of such matches. Guaraní’s high 54% away draw rate increases the likelihood of a closely fought game, but current efficiency and 2 de Mayo’s run of form point towards a narrow home win.

The BTTS signal is strengthened by current form: both teams scored in 80% of 2 de Mayo’s last five matches, and in 60% of Guaraní’s. The hosts averaged 2.0 goals scored during this period, while the visitors averaged 1.2, with Guaraní generating a promising 1.49 xG per match. 2 de Mayo’s defense allowed opponents an average of 1.62 xG recently, giving Guaraní a realistic route to goal despite scoring only 1.0 goal per match on average across the season. However, the season-long BTTS figures remain moderate, at 50% for the hosts and 46% for the visitors, while Guaraní has kept a clean sheet in 46% of its matches. The stronger recent-match data and the attacking potential of both sides slightly shift the forecast towards a scenario in which both teams score, supporting BTTS - Yes / Goal-Goal rather than BTTS - No.

The 2.55-goal projection is based on the combination of the hosts’ average xG of 1.33 with Guaraní’s xG conceded at 1.35, as well as the visitors’ xG of 1.17 against 2 de Mayo’s 1.28 allowed. However, neither team typically creates the conditions for very high-scoring games: the hosts average 1.43 goals and the visitors 1.00, with just 3.86 and 3.31 shots on target per match, respectively. The 3.5 line went Under in 71% of 2 de Mayo’s matches and 77% of Guaraní’s games, while more than 3.5 goals were scored in only 29% and 23% of cases, respectively. The last five matches were more goal-heavy, with both teams recording at least three goals in 60% of their games, but this does not change the strong preference for a scenario with a maximum of three goals.

2 de Mayo are in clearly superior current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 2.0 goals and conceding just 0.8, while Guaraní have suffered 2 defeats during this period. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of their last five matches, whereas the visitors scored only 0.25 goals per game before half-time and failed to score in the first half in as many as 75% of those appearances. Over the full season, 2 de Mayo have won 50% of their matches compared with 15% for Guaraní, and they also have the better average goals scored record, 1.43 to 1.00. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in the quality of chances created, with their average xG standing at 1.33 compared with 1.17 for their opponents. The most likely outcome is therefore a 2 de Mayo lead at the break followed by a win at full-time, although Guaraní’s high draw rate of 54% also increases the chances of an X/1 turnaround.