3 de Noviembre vs Independiente FBC: match statistics

Independiente FBC sit 7th, while 3 de Noviembre are only 16th, and the visitors have lost just 5 of their 20 matches this season compared with 11 defeats for the hosts. Recent form also favors the away side: Independiente are unbeaten in their last five matches (2 wins and 3 draws), conceding just 3 goals in the process, whereas 3 de Noviembre have lost 3 of their last 5 outings. Away from home, the visitors average 1.7 goals per match, compared with 1.1 for the hosts at home, while their conversion rate stands at 18% versus 13%. The hosts draw as many as 60% of their home matches, making a draw a realistic scenario, but Independiente create more shooting opportunities (9.7 versus 8.2 shots) and fail to score in only 10% of their away games, compared with 30% for their opponents. The visitors’ advantage is moderate, as their away defense concedes an average of 1.6 goals, but their more stable form and greater attacking consistency point to a narrow Independiente win.

The BTTS - No pick has a slight edge, as 3 de Noviembre have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches, while Independiente FBC have failed to score in only 10% of games. However, the hosts have a clearly weaker recent BTTS profile: both teams scored in just 20% of their last 5 matches, compared with 60% for the visitors. Over this period, both sides averaged 1.0 goals scored per game, but conceded only 0.8 and 0.6 goals respectively, which favors outcomes where one team keeps a clean sheet. Although Independiente's season-long BTTS rate stands at a high 80%, the hosts average only 1.1 goals per match, with a 9% shot conversion rate compared with 18% for their opponents. The xG from the last five matches—1.69 for the hosts and 1.74 for the visitors—indicates attacking potential, but improved defensive performances from both teams reduce the likelihood of both sides scoring in the same match.

In their last five matches, both teams scored 5 goals, while 3 de Noviembre conceded 4 and Independiente FBC only 3, indicating a current combined average of around 1.8 goals per game. The hosts have recorded fewer than 3.5 goals in 90% of their matches this season, compared with 50% for the visitors, and neither team has scored more than four goals in a single match. However, the average xG from their last five games is higher, at 1.69 for the hosts and 1.74 for the visitors, so the 1.5-goal line does not offer an equally strong safety margin. Across the season, only 30% of 3 de Noviembre’s matches have gone Over 2.5 goals, compared with 40% in their last five; for Independiente, these figures stand at 60% and 20%, respectively. The strongest signal remains Under 3.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.30 goals is clearly below this line, while the recent form of both defenses limits the risk of a high-scoring game.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Independiente FBC win, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 50% of their matches, while the visitors did so in 40%. 3 de Noviembre score an average of just 0.4 goals before the break and fail to score in this phase in 70% of matches, limiting the likelihood of an early lead for the home side. Across the season, Independiente average 1.7 goals per match compared with the hosts’ 1.1, and they remain unbeaten in their last five league fixtures, recording 40% wins and 60% draws. After the break, the visitors have been particularly solid defensively: they have conceded no second-half goals in their last five matches, while winning the second half in 80% of those games. The hosts have the better xG, 1.60 compared with 1.27, but their three-match losing streak and poor first-half efficiency support a later turnaround in favor of the visitors.