76 Iğdır Belediyespor vs Fatih Karagümrük: match statistics

Fatih Karagümrük are showing clearly better current form: they have won 3 of their last 5 matches, with 1 draw and 1 defeat, while 76 Iğdır Belediyespor have won just once. The visitors scored 5 goals during this period, but their key advantage is their defense, which conceded only 3 goals—an average of 0.6 per match. The hosts did score 11 times in five games, but they also conceded 8 goals, highlighting significantly greater instability without the ball. The points tally from the last five appearances also favors Karagümrük, who averaged 2 points per match compared with the hosts’ 1 point. Given this difference in results and defensive solidity, an away win is more likely, although Iğdır’s attacking efficiency increases the risk of a draw.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, primarily due to the home side’s form: in their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of their games. Iğdır averaged 2.2 goals scored during this period but also conceded 1.6, giving Karagümrük a realistic opportunity to respond. The visitors scored only 1.0 goal per match, yet the hosts allowed opponents an average of 1.24 xG, while Karagümrük’s defense, despite conceding just 0.6 goals, allowed opponents 1.29 xG. The visitors’ lower 40% BTTS rate across their last five appearances limits confidence in the pick; however, Iğdır’s strong attacking efficiency and defensive vulnerability slightly favor a scenario in which both teams score — BTTS - Yes / Goal/Goal.

The available data from the last five matches indicates that the home side averaged 2.2 goals scored, but their xG stood at just 1.33, suggesting a potential regression in finishing efficiency. Fatih Karagümrük conceded only 3 goals during this period, or 0.6 per match, despite opponents generating an average of 1.29 xG against them. The visitors themselves scored 1.0 goal per game with an xG of 0.98, while Iğdır conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Although the home side’s matches were open, averaging 3.8 goals with 60% finishing Over 2.5, the visitors’ games averaged only 1.6 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 40% of matches. The projected total of 2.30 goals favors Under 3.5, as four or more goals would require a clear overperformance against both the visitors’ defensive profile and the combined xG potential of the two sides.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Fatih Karagümrük win at full-time, as the visitors have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2.0 points over that period, compared with 1.0 point for the hosts. Iğdır tend to start matches better: in their last five appearances, they were leading at the break in 40% of cases, never trailing, and scored an average of 1.0 goal before half-time compared with 0.4 for their opponents. Karagümrük, however, have a clear advantage after the interval, having conceded no goals in the second halves and recording a +3 goal difference during that period, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.0 goal. The visitors have lost the second half in 0 of their 5 matches, whereas Iğdır have won it only once, so an even start should more often develop into a late advantage for the visitors.