AC Milan vs Atalanta: match statistics
AC Milan vs Atalanta: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AC Milan play Atalanta in Serie A (Italy). The match date is 10 May 2026 at 20:45. Final score: 2:3.
Current form
AC Milan: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Atalanta: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
AC Milan scores 1.39 and concedes 0.92 goals per match. Atalanta scores 1.34 and concedes 0.95. League average: 2.43 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AC Milan 47%, Atalanta 53%. Over 2.5: AC Milan 45%, Atalanta 37%. League level: BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Atalanta has higher xG: 1.64 vs 1.49. AC Milan: 13.2 shots per match, Atalanta: 14.8.
Match halves
AC Milan: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.87. Atalanta: half-time lead 37%, second-half goals 0.71.
Goals by minute
AC Milan: 76-90+ (14 goals). Atalanta: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.43 goals per match, BTTS 45%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-1-0. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I predict an AC Milan win (1) — the hosts hold a seasonal advantage, sitting 3rd and winning 53% of home matches. At home Milan averages 1.29 goals, has xG 1.72 and concedes only 0.94 goals per game with 15.88 shots (4.76 on target), while Atalanta away averages 1.29 goals, has xG 1.41 and concedes 1.06 goals with 12.18 shots (4.0 on target). Last-five form favors the hosts defensively but not offensively — Milan have scored only 1 goal in their last 5 matches and average 0.8 points in that period, whereas Atalanta scored 4 goals and failed to win any of their last 5 (0 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses). Milan also have a higher home clean sheet rate (41% vs 35%), while Atalanta convert shots more efficiently (11% conversion vs Milan’s 8%), keeping them a real threat. Considering the higher xG and more stable home defense of the hosts, but also Milan’s offensive crisis, I assess the probabilities as 52% for the hosts, 28% for a draw and 20% for the away side.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AC Milan | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 33% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.32 | 0.29 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Atalanta is 25% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - AC Milan · 1 pts / match - Atalanta
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
AC Milan scores in 82% of matches (31 of 38 matches), while Atalanta keeps a clean sheet in 34% (13 of 38 matches).
Atalanta scores in 79% of matches (30 of 38 matches), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 39% (15 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — AC Milan
Over / Under — Atalanta
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Atalanta is 10% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.34 pts / match - AC Milan · 1.47 pts / match - Atalanta
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AC Milan - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Atalanta - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 37% of matches and wins 39%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -3 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (14 goli). Concedes most in 16-30 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +4 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AC Milan
Atalanta
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| AC Milan | Liga | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.32 | 2.43 | ▼ 2.29 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 47% | 45% | ▲ 53% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 45% | 46% | ▼ 37% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 39% | 32% | ▲ 34% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 61% | 66% | ▲ 74% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 82% | 77% | ▼ 74% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AC Milan 0 - 1 - 0 Atalanta. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AC Milan vs Atalanta?
The Serie A match finished AC Milan 2:3 Atalanta. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Atalanta?
AC Milan score 1.39 goals per game on average and Atalanta 1.34. The Serie A average is 2.43 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 47% of AC Milan's matches and 53% of Atalanta's.
What form are AC Milan and Atalanta in?
Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Atalanta 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Atalanta?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AC Milan vs Atalanta: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.