Italy - Serie AData current as of September 12, 2026

AC Milan vs Como: match statistics

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
1 : 1half-time 0:1
Como crest
Como
155%(2.33)
X28%(3.10)
217%(3.15)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.46.03
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.28.15%

AC Milan presents excellent form with four victories in the last five matches and an impressive 15-8-1 season record. The hosts are effective at their own stadium, winning 64% of home matches with just 9% losses. Como, despite a decent table position, struggles with consistency in away games – 45% FTS% indicates difficulties in scoring on the road. xG statistics favor Milan (1.84 vs 1.45), suggesting an advantage in creating goal-scoring chances. The high draw percentage for both teams (27% for Milan at home, 27% for Como away) and the visitors' solid defense (45% CS%) increase the probability of shared points. Taking all factors into account, Milan is the favorite, but Como has the potential to make life difficult for the hosts.

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AC Milan vs Como: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

AC Milan played against Como in Serie A (Italy). The game was played on February 18, 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Recent form

AC Milan has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.60 points per game. Como has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.

Scoring records

AC Milan scores 1.67 goals per game and allows 0.75. Como scores 1.58 and allows 0.75. Games in this league average 2.44 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 54% of AC Milan's games and 38% of Como's. The Over 2.5 rates are 50% and 42%, compared with league averages of 47% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Como has the higher season xG average, 1.63 to 1.50 per game. AC Milan takes 13.3 shots per game, while Como takes 14.6.

First-half and second-half trends

AC Milan leads at halftime in 33% of its games and scores 1.00 goals per game after halftime. Como leads at halftime in 33% and scores 1.00 after halftime.

When the teams score

AC Milan's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (10 goals). For Como, it is minutes 76-90+ (10 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Serie A games average 2.44 goals. Both teams score in 47% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 1 home win, 0 draws and 0 away wins. Those games averaged 4.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

AC Milan presents excellent form with four victories in the last five matches and an impressive 15-8-1 season record. The hosts are effective at their own stadium, winning 64% of home matches with just 9% losses. Como, despite a decent table position, struggles with consistency in away games – 45% FTS% indicates difficulties in scoring on the road. xG statistics favor Milan (1.84 vs 1.45), suggesting an advantage in creating goal-scoring chances. The high draw percentage for both teams (27% for Milan at home, 27% for Como away) and the visitors' solid defense (45% CS%) increase the probability of shared points. Taking all factors into account, Milan is the favorite, but Como has the potential to make life difficult for the hosts.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

0 : 1
First half
1 : 0
Second half

Game stats

54Possession (%)46
AC MilanComo
6Shots10
AC MilanComo
4Shots on target4
AC MilanComo
0.98xG1.16
AC MilanComo
4Corners4
AC MilanComo
43Dangerous attacks34
AC MilanComo
11Fouls12
AC MilanComo
2Cards3
AC MilanComo

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

2.21Points per gamePPG - points per game.1.71
AC MilanComo
1.67Goals scored / game1.58
AC MilanComo
0.75Goals allowed / game0.75
AC MilanComo
1.5xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.63
AC MilanComo
52%Average possession62%
AC MilanComo
4.67Shots on target / game5.25
AC MilanComo
46%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.50%
AC MilanComo
54%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.38%
AC MilanComo

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

13.29Shots per game14.63
AC MilanComo
4.67Shots on target5.25
AC MilanComo
12.5%Shot conversion10.8%
AC MilanComo
52%Possession62%
AC MilanComo
1.5xG for1.63
AC MilanComo
1.27xG against1.09
AC MilanComo

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedComo: Dominant
AC MilanComo
Accuracy (shots on target)35%36%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.360.30

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

AC Milan is 86% better for: last-5 form.

2.6 pts / game - AC Milan · 1.4 pts / game - Como

AC Milan
WWDWW
Unbeaten in the last 5 games
Season result split
63% W33% D4% L
Season (W-D-L)
15-8-1
2.21 pts / game · goal difference +22
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-1-0
2.60 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
7-3-1
Last 5 at home
3-2-0
WDWDW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 0.6xG: 1.18Opponent xG: 1.37BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 60%
Como
LWWDL
Season result split
46% W33% D21% L
Season (W-D-L)
11-8-5
1.71 pts / game · goal difference +20
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
5-3-3
Last 5 away
3-0-2
LLWWW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.2Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.99Opponent xG: 0.83BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 80%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 6% better for: goals scored per game.

1.67 goals / game - AC Milan · 1.58 goals / game - Como

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 96% of games (23 of 24 meczów), while Como keeps a clean sheet in 50% (12 of 24 meczów).

Como scoring profile: strong

Como scores in 71% of games (17 of 24 meczów), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 46% (11 of 24 meczów).

40Goals scored (season)38
AC MilanComo
18Goals conceded (season)18
AC MilanComo
2.42Average goals per game2.33
AC MilanComo
10Goals scored (last 5)11
AC MilanComo
3Goals conceded (last 5)5
AC MilanComo
AC Milan
46%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.11 of 24 meczów
4%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.1 of 24 meczów
Como
50%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.12 of 24 meczów
29%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.7 of 24 meczów

How often they score at least...

96%1 goal71%
AC MilanComo
50%2 goals42%
AC MilanComo
21%3 goals25%
AC MilanComo
0%4 goals8%
AC MilanComo

How often they concede at least...

54%1 goal50%
AC MilanComo
21%2 goals13%
AC MilanComo
0%3 goals8%
AC MilanComo
0%4 goals4%
AC MilanComo

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

54%
AC Milan - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.13 of 24 meczów
38%
Como - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.9 of 24 meczów
47%
League average

Goal patterns

25%BTTS at half-time17%
AC MilanComo
4%BTTS in both halves0%
AC MilanComo
33%Scored in both halves29%
AC MilanComo

BTTS and goal count

38%Min. 3 goals and BTTS21%
AC MilanComo
13%Min. 3 goals without BTTS21%
AC MilanComo
60%BTTS - last 540%
AC MilanComo

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

96%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.83%
AC MilanComo
71%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.71%
AC MilanComo
50%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.42%
AC MilanComo
21%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.21%
AC MilanComo
4%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.8%
AC MilanComo

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 96%Under 4%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 71%Under 29%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 50%Under 50%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 21%Under 79%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 4%Under 96%

Over / Under - Como

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 83%Under 17%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 71%Under 29%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 42%Under 58%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 21%Under 79%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 8%Under 92%

1st half

58%Min. 1 goal before half-time63%
AC MilanComo
33%Min. 2 goals before half-time25%
AC MilanComo
8%Min. 3 goals before half-time0%
AC MilanComo

2nd half

88%Min. 1 goal after half-time75%
AC MilanComo
46%Min. 2 goals after half-time46%
AC MilanComo
8%Min. 3 goals after half-time17%
AC MilanComo

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan - half-time state
33% leading58% draw8% trailing
Como - half-time state
33% leading54% draw13% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.58Points per game (1st half)1.54
AC MilanComo
0.67Goals scored (1st half)0.58
AC MilanComo
0.33Goals conceded (1st half)0.29
AC MilanComo
1Average goals (1st half)0.88
AC MilanComo
71%Clean sheet before half-time71%
AC MilanComo
46%No goal before half-time50%
AC MilanComo

After half-time (2nd half)

1.92Points per game (2nd half)1.58
AC MilanComo
1Goals scored (2nd half)1
AC MilanComo
0.42Goals conceded (2nd half)0.46
AC MilanComo
1.42Average goals (2nd half)1.46
AC MilanComo
63%Clean sheet after half-time67%
AC MilanComo
25%No goal after half-time50%
AC MilanComo

AC Milan - second-half results

54% W29% D17% L
38
Half-time points
16
Half-time goals
+8
Goal difference (1st half)
46
Second-half points
+14
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.58
PPG before half-time
Lead holding191%

Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 63%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Como - second-half results

42% W33% D25% L
37
Half-time points
14
Half-time goals
+7
Goal difference (1st half)
38
Second-half points
+13
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.54
PPG before half-time
Lead holding139%

Leads at halftime in 33% of games and wins 46%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.2

Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

AC Milan - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.802.20
Goals scored / game0.81.2
Goals allowed / game0.20.4
Average goals per game1.01.6
1 goal60%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals0%0%
Clean sheet80%60%
No goal40%0%
Goal difference+3+4
Half-time: 40% leading - 60% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 40% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4
Como - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.601.60
Goals scored / game1.01.2
Goals allowed / game0.40.6
Average goals per game1.41.8
1 goal80%80%
2 goals60%60%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet60%60%
No goal40%40%
Goal difference+3+3
Half-time: 40% leading - 40% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 5

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

AC Milan
ScoredConceded
4
3
0-15
3
3
16-30
9
2
31-45
10
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
9
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (10 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +7 - wins late phases.

Como
ScoredConceded
7
3
0-15
5
2
16-30
2
2
31-45
5
6
46-60
9
1
61-75
10
4
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.38
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.2 : 1.2
Estimated goal split
home : away
97%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
46%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+68%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
68%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
1%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 100 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

AC Milan

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.23
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.69
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-6.9 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.17
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.52
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
131%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
64%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.39
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.3
Late goals
23% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 10% come in the first quarter-hour.
23%

Como

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.54
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.29
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-17.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.05
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.34
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
135%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
59%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
-0.31
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.4
Late goals
26% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 18% come in the first quarter-hour.
26%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

AC MilanLigaComo
Average goals per game• 2.422.44▼ 2.33
Both teams scored▲ 54%47%▼ 38%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 50%47%▼ 42%
Clean sheets▲ 46%32%▲ 50%
Goal before half-time▼ 58%65%▼ 63%
Goal after half-time▲ 88%77%▼ 75%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.44
Average goals per game
47%
Both teams scored
47%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
32%
Clean sheets
1.27
Home goals / game
1.17
Away goals / game
+9%
Home attack advantage
+8%
Home defensive advantage
+2%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
65%
1 goal
30%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
2%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
43%
2 goals
15%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. ComoGoalNicolás Paz Martínez
  2. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Matteo GabbiaOff: Strahinja Pavlović
  3. ComoYellow cardNicolás Paz Martínez
  4. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Alexis SaelemaekersOff: Zachary Athekame
  5. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Youssouf FofanaOff: Samuele Ricci
  6. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Niclas FüllkrugOff: Christopher Nkunku
  7. ComoYellow cardJean Butez
  8. AC MilanGoalRafael Alexandre Conceição LeãoAssist: Ardon Jasari
  9. ComoYellow cardSergi Roberto Carnicer
  10. AC MilanYellow cardRafael Alexandre Conceição Leão
  11. ComoSubstitutionOn: Jesús Rodríguez CaraballoOff: Maxence Caqueret
  12. ComoSubstitutionOn: Lucas Da CunhaOff: Sergi Roberto Carnicer
  13. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Christian Mate PulisicOff: Rafael Alexandre Conceição Leão
  14. AC MilanYellow cardAlexis Saelemaekers
  15. ComoSubstitutionOn: Ivan SmolčićOff: Mërgim Vojvoda

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeMaurizio Mariani

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Maurizio MarianiMatches officiated: 14
4Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 250%Home wins28%Draws21%Away wins

Head-to-head

Record from AC Milan's perspective: 1 win, 0 draws and 0 losses against Como. Games average 4.00 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.

Calcio Como
1 : 3
AC Milan

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Como?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:1 Como. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Como?

AC Milan score 1.67 goals per game on average and Como 1.58. The Serie A average is 2.44 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 54% of AC Milan's matches and 38% of Como's.

What form are AC Milan and Como in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Como 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Como?

The statistical background for AC Milan vs Como — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.