Italy - Serie AData current as of September 06, 2026

AC Milan vs Genoa: match statistics

AC Milan crest
AC Milan
1 : 1half-time 0:1
Genoa crest
Genoa
165%(1.41)
X22%(4.33)
213%(7.60)
BTTSOver/UnderHT/FT
Pick: 1Lost
Pick score:Pick score — the strength of the NoFluffPicks model signal for this pick.67.83
Value:Value — how much the bookmaker price is above our estimated probability. Positive value is favorable long term.-8.35%

AC Milan significantly outperforms Genoa in terms of form and quality. The hosts sit 2nd in the table with an impressive record of 11 wins and just 1 loss, while Genoa languishes in 17th place with only 3 wins this season. Milan demonstrates excellent home efficiency – 67% wins, 44% clean sheets, and a mere 11% loss rate, whereas Genoa has failed to keep a single clean sheet away and loses half of their fixtures. The form disparity is evident: Milan has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches while conceding 6, compared to Genoa's 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Furthermore, Milan holds the edge in average shots (15 vs 10.88), possession (51% vs 41%), and xG (1.63 vs 1.22), confirming their offensive dominance. Given these factors, a home victory is the most probable outcome.

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AC Milan vs Genoa: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

AC Milan played against Genoa in Serie A (Italy). The game was played on January 8, 2026. Final score: 1:1.

Recent form

AC Milan has 4 wins, 1 draw and 0 losses over its last five games, averaging 2.60 points per game. Genoa has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses, with 0.80 points per game.

Scoring records

AC Milan scores 1.65 goals per game and allows 0.76. Genoa scores 1.00 and allows 1.56. Games in this league average 2.35 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 47% of AC Milan's games and 67% of Genoa's. The Over 2.5 rates are 53% and 61%, compared with league averages of 46% for BTTS and 44% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

AC Milan has the higher season xG average, 1.49 to 1.26 per game. AC Milan takes 13.2 shots per game, while Genoa takes 11.4.

First-half and second-half trends

AC Milan leads at halftime in 35% of its games and scores 0.94 goals per game after halftime. Genoa leads at halftime in 22% and scores 0.50 after halftime.

When the teams score

AC Milan's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). For Genoa, it is minutes 76-90+ (5 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Serie A games average 2.35 goals. Both teams score in 46% of games, and 44% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

There is not enough head-to-head history for a meaningful comparison.

Archived pre-match analysis

This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.

General match analysis

AC Milan significantly outperforms Genoa in terms of form and quality. The hosts sit 2nd in the table with an impressive record of 11 wins and just 1 loss, while Genoa languishes in 17th place with only 3 wins this season. Milan demonstrates excellent home efficiency – 67% wins, 44% clean sheets, and a mere 11% loss rate, whereas Genoa has failed to keep a single clean sheet away and loses half of their fixtures. The form disparity is evident: Milan has scored 9 goals in their last 5 matches while conceding 6, compared to Genoa's 5 goals scored and 8 conceded. Furthermore, Milan holds the edge in average shots (15 vs 10.88), possession (51% vs 41%), and xG (1.63 vs 1.22), confirming their offensive dominance. Given these factors, a home victory is the most probable outcome.

View the statistical overview

Stats by half

0 : 1
First half
1 : 0
Second half

Game stats

61Possession (%)39
AC MilanGenoa
32Shots7
AC MilanGenoa
8Shots on target2
AC MilanGenoa
3.36xG0.7
AC MilanGenoa
12Corners1
AC MilanGenoa
110Dangerous attacks15
AC MilanGenoa
12Fouls8
AC MilanGenoa
4Cards1
AC MilanGenoa

Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

2.24Points per gamePPG - points per game.0.83
AC MilanGenoa
1.65Goals scored / game1
AC MilanGenoa
0.76Goals allowed / game1.56
AC MilanGenoa
1.49xG forxG - expected goals, the quality of scoring chances.1.26
AC MilanGenoa
52%Average possession47%
AC MilanGenoa
4.71Shots on target / game3.94
AC MilanGenoa
53%Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.11%
AC MilanGenoa
47%Both teams scoredBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.67%
AC MilanGenoa

Team stats— who is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

13.24Shots per game11.44
AC MilanGenoa
4.71Shots on target3.94
AC MilanGenoa
12.4%Shot conversion8.7%
AC MilanGenoa
52%Possession47%
AC MilanGenoa
1.49xG for1.26
AC MilanGenoa
1.22xG against1.41
AC MilanGenoa

Shooting quality

AC Milan: BalancedGenoa: Balanced
AC MilanGenoa
Accuracy (shots on target)36%34%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.350.25

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team form— who is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

AC Milan is 225% better for: last-5 form.

2.6 pts / game - AC Milan · 0.8 pts / game - Genoa

AC Milan
WWDWW
Unbeaten in the last 5 games
Season result split
65% W29% R6% P
Season (W-D-L)
11-5-1
2.24 pts / game · goal difference +15
Last 5 (W-D-L)
4-1-0
2.60 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
6-2-1
Last 5 at home
3-2-0
DWWDW
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 2.0Goals conceded: 0.8xG: 1.54Opponent xG: 0.95BTTS: 40%Over 2.5: 60%
Genoa
WLLLD
Season result split
17% W33% R50% P
Season (W-D-L)
3-6-9
0.83 pts / game · goal difference -10
Last 5 (W-D-L)
1-1-3
0.80 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
2-2-4
Last 5 away
2-1-2
LWDWL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.0Goals conceded: 1.6xG: 1.07Opponent xG: 1.89BTTS: 80%Over 2.5: 60%

Goals— how do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

AC Milan is 65% better for: goals scored per game.

1.65 goals / game - AC Milan · 1 goals / game - Genoa

AC Milan is 105% better for: goals allowed per game.

0.76 goals / game - AC Milan · 1.56 goals / game - Genoa

AC Milan scoring profile: very strong

AC Milan scores in 94% of games (16 of 17 meczów), while Genoa keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 meczów).

Genoa scoring profile: mixed

Genoa scores in 67% of games (12 of 18 meczów), while AC Milan keeps a clean sheet in 53% (9 of 17 meczów).

28Goals scored (season)18
AC MilanGenoa
13Goals conceded (season)28
AC MilanGenoa
2.41Average goals per game2.56
AC MilanGenoa
10Goals scored (last 5)5
AC MilanGenoa
4Goals conceded (last 5)8
AC MilanGenoa
AC Milan
53%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.9 of 17 meczów
6%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.1 of 17 meczów
Genoa
11%
Clean sheetsClean sheet - a match with no goal conceded.2 of 18 meczów
33%
No goalFailed to score - a match where the team did not score.6 of 18 meczów

How often they score at least...

94%1 goal67%
AC MilanGenoa
53%2 goals28%
AC MilanGenoa
18%3 goals6%
AC MilanGenoa
0%4 goals0%
AC MilanGenoa

How often they concede at least...

47%1 goal89%
AC MilanGenoa
29%2 goals50%
AC MilanGenoa
0%3 goals17%
AC MilanGenoa
0%4 goals0%
AC MilanGenoa

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

47%
AC Milan - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.8 of 17 meczów
67%
Genoa - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.12 of 18 meczów
46%
League average

Goal patterns

29%BTTS at half-time22%
AC MilanGenoa
6%BTTS in both halves11%
AC MilanGenoa
29%Scored in both halves28%
AC MilanGenoa

BTTS and goal count

41%Min. 3 goals and BTTS56%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals without BTTS6%
AC MilanGenoa
40%BTTS - last 580%
AC MilanGenoa

Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

Full game - team comparison (Over)

94%Min. 1 goal (Over 0.5)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.89%
AC MilanGenoa
65%Min. 2 goals (Over 1.5)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.78%
AC MilanGenoa
53%Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.61%
AC MilanGenoa
24%Min. 4 goals (Over 3.5)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.17%
AC MilanGenoa
6%Min. 5 goals (Over 4.5)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.6%
AC MilanGenoa

Over / Under - AC Milan

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 94%Under 6%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 65%Under 35%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 53%Under 47%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 24%Under 76%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 6%Under 94%

Over / Under - Genoa

Line 0.5 (min. 1 goal)Over 0.5 - at least one goal in the match.
Over 89%Under 11%
Line 1.5 (min. 2 goals)Over 1.5 - at least two goals in the match.
Over 78%Under 22%
Line 2.5 (min. 3 goals)Over 2.5 - at least three goals in the match.
Over 61%Under 39%
Line 3.5 (min. 4 goals)Over 3.5 - at least four goals in the match.
Over 17%Under 83%
Line 4.5 (min. 5 goals)Over 4.5 - at least five goals in the match.
Over 6%Under 94%

1st half

59%Min. 1 goal before half-time72%
AC MilanGenoa
35%Min. 2 goals before half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals before half-time11%
AC MilanGenoa

2nd half

82%Min. 1 goal after half-time83%
AC MilanGenoa
41%Min. 2 goals after half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
12%Min. 3 goals after half-time6%
AC MilanGenoa

Game halves— when do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

AC Milan is 41% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.65 pts / game - AC Milan · 1.17 pts / game - Genoa

AC Milan - half-time state
35% leading59% draw6% trailing
Genoa - half-time state
22% leading50% draw28% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.65Points per game (1st half)1.17
AC MilanGenoa
0.71Goals scored (1st half)0.5
AC MilanGenoa
0.35Goals conceded (1st half)0.78
AC MilanGenoa
1.06Average goals (1st half)1.28
AC MilanGenoa
71%Clean sheet before half-time50%
AC MilanGenoa
41%No goal before half-time56%
AC MilanGenoa

After half-time (2nd half)

1.82Points per game (2nd half)1.06
AC MilanGenoa
0.94Goals scored (2nd half)0.5
AC MilanGenoa
0.41Goals conceded (2nd half)0.78
AC MilanGenoa
1.35Average goals (2nd half)1.28
AC MilanGenoa
65%Clean sheet after half-time39%
AC MilanGenoa
35%No goal after half-time50%
AC MilanGenoa

AC Milan - second-half results

53% W24% R24% P
28
Half-time points
12
Half-time goals
+6
Goal difference (1st half)
31
Second-half points
+9
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.65
PPG before half-time
Lead holding186%

Leads at halftime in 35% of games and wins 65%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

Genoa - second-half results

22% W39% R39% P
21
Half-time points
9
Half-time goals
-5
Goal difference (1st half)
19
Second-half points
-5
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.17
PPG before half-time
Lead holding77%

Leads at halftime in 22% of games and wins 17%. Sometimes gives up a halftime lead.

Defense after halftime0.0

Defense stays consistent across the full game.

AC Milan - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.202.60
Goals scored / game0.61.4
Goals allowed / game0.60.2
Average goals per game1.21.6
1 goal60%100%
2 goals40%60%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet60%80%
No goal40%0%
Goal difference0+6
Half-time: 20% leading - 60% draw - 20% trailing
2nd half: 80% won - 20% draw - 0% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 3
Genoa - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game1.001.60
Goals scored / game0.40.6
Goals allowed / game1.20.4
Average goals per game1.61.0
1 goal80%80%
2 goals60%20%
3 goals20%0%
Clean sheet40%60%
No goal60%40%
Goal difference-4+1
Half-time: 20% leading - 40% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 40% won - 40% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

AC Milan
ScoredConceded
4
2
0-15
2
2
16-30
6
2
31-45
8
3
46-60
4
2
61-75
4
2
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.

Genoa
ScoredConceded
3
5
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
5
31-45
1
5
46-60
3
6
61-75
5
3
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (5 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.48
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.6 : 0.9
Estimated goal split
home : away
106%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
57%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
-100%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
63%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
2%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 50 matches
2-3
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

AC Milan

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
+0.27
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.62
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-4.0 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
+0.16
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.46
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
136%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
67%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.36
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.2
Late goals
14% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 14% come in the first quarter-hour.
14%

Genoa

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.15
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
-0.41
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-0.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.26
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
-0.15
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
88%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
129%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
-0.03
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
0.0
Late goals
28% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 17% come in the first quarter-hour.
28%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League context— is this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

AC MilanLigaGenoa
Average goals per game• 2.412.35▲ 2.56
Both teams scored• 47%46%▲ 67%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)▲ 53%44%▲ 61%
Clean sheets▲ 53%32%▼ 11%
Goal before half-time▼ 59%64%▲ 72%
Goal after half-time▲ 82%75%▲ 83%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.35
Average goals per game
46%
Both teams scored
44%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
32%
Clean sheets
1.21
Home goals / game
1.14
Away goals / game
+6%
Home attack advantage
+6%
Home defensive advantage
+3%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
64%
1 goal
28%
2 goals
9%
3 goals
1%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
75%
1 goal
40%
2 goals
15%
3 goals
3%
4 goals

Lineups and player events

Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.

Home team

Away team

Match timeline

Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.

  1. GenoaGoalLorenzo ColomboAssist: Ruslan Malinovskiy
  2. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Ruben Ira Loftus-CheekOff: Youssouf Fofana
  3. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Patrizio MasiniOff: Morten Thorsby
  4. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Mikael Egill EllertssonOff: Ruslan Malinovskiy
  5. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Niclas FüllkrugOff: Alexis Saelemaekers
  6. AC MilanYellow cardMatteo Gabbia
  7. GenoaSubstitutionOn: Jeff EkhatorOff: Vítor Manuel Carvalho Oliveira
  8. AC MilanSubstitutionOn: Zachary AthekameOff: Matteo Gabbia
  9. GenoaYellow cardNicola Leali
  10. AC MilanGoalRafael Alexandre Conceição Leão
  11. AC MilanYellow cardMike Maignan
  12. AC MilanYellow cardStrahinja Pavlović
  13. AC MilanYellow cardFikayo Tomori

Referee and managers

Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.

RefereeMaurizio Mariani

Referee context

See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.

Maurizio MarianiMatches officiated: 14
4Cards per match
0Penalties per match
1 / X / 250%Home wins28%Draws21%Away wins

FAQ

What was the result of AC Milan vs Genoa?

The Serie A match finished AC Milan 1:1 Genoa. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.

What do the goal statistics show before AC Milan vs Genoa?

AC Milan score 1.65 goals per game on average and Genoa 1.00. The Serie A average is 2.35 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 44% of games. Both teams score in 47% of AC Milan's matches and 67% of Genoa's.

What form are AC Milan and Genoa in?

Over the last 5 games AC Milan have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Genoa 1-1-3 (0.80 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AC Milan vs Genoa?

This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.