AEL vs Paphos: match statistics
The match promises to be very evenly contested. AEL shows solid home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5), yet their recent results have been inconsistent. Paphos occupies a higher league position (4th place) and boasts better offensive statistics (39 goals this season), but they drop points in 40% of their away matches. A key factor is Paphos's advantage in ball possession (55% vs 51%) and higher average shots on target per match (5 vs 3). Considering the similar xG values of both teams and their identical form in the last five matches (1.8 PPG), a draw seems the most probable outcome, although a win for either side is equally possible.
AEL vs Paphos: form, goals and key statistics
Game details
AEL played against Paphos in First Division (Cyprus). The game was played on February 15, 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Recent form
AEL has 2 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses over its last five games, averaging 1.20 points per game. Paphos has 1 win, 0 draws and 4 losses, with 0.60 points per game.
Scoring records
AEL scores 1.19 goals per game and allows 1.43. Paphos scores 1.86 and allows 1.05. Games in this league average 2.55 goals.
BTTS and goal totals
Both teams score in 33% of AEL's games and 48% of Paphos's. The Over 2.5 rates are 52% and 57%, compared with league averages of 38% for BTTS and 47% for Over 2.5.
xG and shots
Paphos has the higher season xG average, 1.47 to 1.07 per game. AEL takes 7.7 shots per game, while Paphos takes 11.1.
First-half and second-half trends
AEL leads at halftime in 29% of its games and scores 0.71 goals per game after halftime. Paphos leads at halftime in 52% and scores 1.05 after halftime.
When the teams score
AEL's most productive scoring window is minutes 46-60 (6 goals). For Paphos, it is minutes 76-90+ (15 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.
League scoring profile
First Division games average 2.55 goals. Both teams score in 38% of games, and 47% finish with at least three goals.
Head-to-head record
Before this game, one previous meeting was available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 1 away win. Those games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be very evenly contested. AEL shows solid home form with a 50% win rate and a positive goal difference (+5), yet their recent results have been inconsistent. Paphos occupies a higher league position (4th place) and boasts better offensive statistics (39 goals this season), but they drop points in 40% of their away matches. A key factor is Paphos's advantage in ball possession (55% vs 51%) and higher average shots on target per match (5 vs 3). Considering the similar xG values of both teams and their identical form in the last five matches (1.8 PPG), a draw seems the most probable outcome, although a win for either side is equally possible.
View the statistical overviewStats by half
Game stats
Pre-game profile— what do the season numbers say?
This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.
Shooting quality
| AEL | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 42% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.41 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.
AEL is 100% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / game - AEL · 0.6 pts / game - Paphos
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Paphos is 56% better for: goals scored per game.
1.19 goals / game - AEL · 1.86 goals / game - Paphos
Paphos is 36% better for: goals allowed per game.
1.43 goals / game - AEL · 1.05 goals / game - Paphos
AEL scores in 57% of games (12 of 21 meczów), while Paphos keeps a clean sheet in 43% (9 of 21 meczów).
Paphos scores in 90% of games (19 of 21 meczów), while AEL keeps a clean sheet in 29% (6 of 21 meczów).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these games cross the goal lines?
See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.
Full game - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AEL
Over / Under - Paphos
1st half
2nd half
Game halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Paphos is 71% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.14 pts / game - AEL · 1.95 pts / game - Paphos
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AEL - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 29% of games and wins 43%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.3 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
Paphos - second-half results
Leads at halftime in 52% of games and wins 62%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.
Allows 0.5 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 1.20 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals per game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 0.60 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / game | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals allowed / game | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals per game | 0.8 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 100% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (15 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.
Game profile
AEL
Paphos
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (First Division).
Teams vs league
| AEL | Liga | Paphos | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals per game | • 2.62 | 2.55 | ▲ 2.90 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 33% | 38% | ▲ 48% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 52% | 47% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 34% | ▲ 43% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 76% | 71% | ▲ 76% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 76% | 80% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Record from AEL's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss against Paphos. Games average 1.00 goals, and both teams scored in 0% of them.
FAQ
What was the result of AEL vs Paphos?
The First Division match finished AEL 0:1 Paphos. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AEL vs Paphos?
AEL score 1.19 goals per game on average and Paphos 1.86. The First Division average is 2.55 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 33% of AEL's matches and 48% of Paphos's.
What form are AEL and Paphos in?
Over the last 5 games AEL have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Paphos 1-0-4 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AEL vs Paphos?
The statistical background for AEL vs Paphos — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.