Ajka vs Soroksár SC: match statistics

Soroksár SC lead the standings and remain unbeaten, winning 5 of 6 matches. They have scored 16 goals in their last five games, compared with Ajka’s 8 over the same period. The visitors have also been more effective over the season as a whole, scoring 17 goals and conceding just 4, while Ajka have an 8:3 record after five rounds. Ajka do average 2 goals per home match and have avoided defeat in all three games, but they allow opponents chances worth 2.04 xG per match—clearly weaker than Soroksár’s 1.01 xG conceded away from home. The Soroksár side are on a four-match winning streak and average 2.6 points across their last five games, so despite the hosts’ solid performances, they have a slightly higher chance of winning. A draw remains a realistic outcome, as the visitors have drawn half of their away matches, while Ajka have drawn 33% of their home fixtures.

Ajka has a very strong defensive record in the competition: they concede an average of just 0.5 goals per match and keep a clean sheet in 75% of games. Soroksár average 1.5 goals per game this season, but their potential against such a defense is also limited by Ajka’s average xG against opponents, which stands at 0.99. The hosts’ seasonal BTTS rate is just 25%, significantly below the visitors’ 50% and the league-wide figure of 57%. The last five matches provide some argument for a Soroksár goal, as Ajka have recorded 1.85 xG against them during this period, but they have still conceded only 0.6 goals per match. The most likely outcome therefore remains BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score, primarily due to the high probability of Ajka keeping a clean sheet.

Ajka averages 3.5 total goals in home matches, scoring 2.0 goals per game and conceding just 0.5, although its last five outings have produced an average of 2.2 goals. Soroksár is in a much stronger attacking scoring run: over its last five matches, it has averaged 3.2 goals scored and just 0.8 conceded. The hosts create an average of 1.38 xG, while the visitors average 1.10 xG; however, Ajka has allowed opponents as much as 1.85 xG across its last five matches. The Over 1.5 goals line has an edge, as both teams have scored at least once in 100% of their matches so far, while the league average stands at 2.89 goals. Caution is advised with higher goal lines due to Ajka’s 75% home clean-sheet rate and the fact that only 20% of its last five matches featured at least three goals.

Ajka have won all of their matches at home so far, scoring an average of 3.5 goals and conceding just 0.5, while Soroksár average 1.5 goals on the road. The hosts also create more danger in the final third: they record an average of 5 shots on target compared with 2 for the visitors, and their xG stands at 1.38 versus Soroksár’s 1.10. In their last five matches, Ajka were leading at the break on four occasions and conceded no goals before half-time, whereas Soroksár were level at half-time in 3 of their 5 matches and conceded an average of 0.8 goals before the interval. After the break, the hosts’ profile is particularly strong at home, as they scored an average of 2.25 goals and did not concede, supporting the HT/FT 1/1 scenario, with Ajka taking the lead before half-time and going on to secure the win.