Al Ahed vs Al Ansar: match statistics

Al Ansar is the clear favorite: they sit 1st with a record of 18 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses, scored 61 goals this season and 16 goals in the last 5 matches (avg. 3.2 per game). Away, Al Ansar average 2.9 goals scored and concede only 0.3 goals per match, keep a clean sheet in 70% of games and have a 24% shot conversion with 6.1 shots on target, while Al Ahed at home average 1.45 goals scored and 1.36 conceded, 45% clean sheets and 4.55 shots on target with 17% conversion. The xG differential also favors the visitors: away xG for Al Ansar is 1.59 vs 1.25 for the home side, and xG against is 0.8 for the visitors vs 1.1 for Al Ahed, indicating superior chance creation and lower risk of conceding. In form over the last 5 matches Al Ansar have 3 wins and 2 draws (2.2 points per game), while Al Ahed have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses (1.4 points per game) and have scored 11 goals in five matches versus 16 conceded. Considering advantages in attack (2.9 vs 1.45 goals per game), defense (0.3 vs 1.36 conceded) and higher shot efficiency, I forecast an away win.

I predict BTTS - No in this match. Al Ansar keeps a clean sheet in 70% of its games this season, Al Ahed in 53%, and across the league one team records a clean sheet in 82% of matches. Al Ansar averages 2.9 goals scored and concedes only 0.3 per game season-to-date, while Al Ahed averages 2.13 scored and concedes 0.8, indicating a highly efficient attack from the visitors paired with very solid defending. xG reads 1.69 for the home side and 1.59 for the visitors with xG against of 0.94 and 0.8 respectively, and season BTTS is 47% for Al Ahed and 30% for Al Ansar, so the scenario with at least one clean sheet is statistically strong. The last 5 matches provide a minor warning — Al Ahed has BTTS in 60% of their last 5 and Al Ansar 40% — but these recent results do not outweigh the season-long and league-level clean sheet data. Therefore I assign 70% probability to 'no' and 30% to 'yes'.

The compromise between attacking xG (Al Ahed 1.69, Al Ansar 1.59) and opponent defensive xG conceded (Al Ahed against 0.94, Al Ansar against 0.80) yields expected goals of 1.42 for Al Ahed and 1.40 for Al Ansar, totaling 2.82 goals. This season Al Ahed scores 2.13 goals at home on average, Al Ansar scores 2.90 goals away; in the last 5 matches Al Ahed has 11 goals (2.2/ game) and Al Ansar 16 goals (3.2/game), confirming the visitors’ offensive form. Additionally, 93% of Al Ahed’s home matches finished over 1.5 goals, while Al Ansar have 60% of such away fixtures; both teams average 5.85 and 6.10 shots on target respectively with conversion rates of 18% vs 24%, which increases the likelihood of goals. With an expected total of ~2.82 goals and season Over 2.5 rates around 53% (home) and 50% (away), I estimate probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈ 77%, Over 2.5 ≈ 54% and Over 3.5 ≈ 31%. The strongest signal is Over 1.5 (line 1.5), therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the best single line.

Al Ansar shows stronger season form: 80% wins compared to Al Ahed’s 67% and an average of 2.9 goals scored per match versus the hosts’ 2.13, with a lower goals conceded average (0.3 vs 0.8). At Half-Time the data indicate balanced, defensive openings: Al Ansar has 100% clean sheets at the break and averages 1.3 goals by Half-Time, while Al Ahed has 73% HT clean sheets and averages 1.0 goal by Half-Time, so first halves often finish level or with a minimal lead. After the break Al Ansar is stronger — in the last 5 matches they average 1.8 second-half goals versus Al Ahed’s 1.0 and have 100% of second halves with at least one goal, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will turn the result. Additionally xG is balanced (hosts 1.69 vs visitors 1.59), but Al Ansar converts chances more efficiently (shot conversion 24% vs 18%), so a final win for the visitors after a Half-Time draw appears the strongest signal. As a result I select X/2 as the favored scenario and assign it approximately a 32% probability, with 2/2 at 22% and X/X at 18% as realistic alternatives.