Al Ahly vs ENPPI: match statistics

Al Ahly are the favorites: at home they win 73% of matches, score an average of 1.64 goals per game and have an average xG of 1.84, whereas ENPPI win only 21% of away matches and score 1.14 goals on average with xG 1.04. Offensively the hosts clearly dominate — 15.64 average shots and 5.82 on target per home game versus 8.36 shots and 2.36 on target for the visitors, producing more goal-scoring opportunities. Defensively Al Ahly have the superior seasonal record (0.73 goals conceded per home game vs ENPPI’s 1.00 conceded away), although note that the hosts have conceded 8 goals in their last 5 matches (1.6 per game). ENPPI register a high draw rate on the road (57%) and an above-average shot conversion (14% conversion despite fewer chances), so a draw is a realistic outcome, but 36% of their away matches end with them failing to score. Considering the possession advantage (62% vs 51%), superiority in chance creation and higher xG, I assign a 62% probability to an Al Ahly win, 24% to a draw and 14% to an ENPPI win.

Both teams have BTTS at 60% in their last 5 matches (Al Ahly 60% and ENPPI 60%), and goals per match in that period are 1.6 scored by the hosts and 1.4 by the visitors. Seasonally Al Ahly have 55% clean sheets at home versus 36% clean sheets for ENPPI away, but in the last 5 fixtures Al Ahly concede on average 1.6 goals per match compared to a seasonal 0.73, which weakens their defensive edge. Offensively Al Ahly have xG 1.28 versus ENPPI 1.04, while ENPPI convert chances better (14% vs 10% for Al Ahly) despite fewer on-target shots (2.36 vs 4.09), increasing the visitors' chances of scoring. Additionally, in the last 5 matches Al Ahly have scored 8 and conceded 8, and ENPPI have scored 7 and conceded 6, indicating higher goal activity than over the season. Considering 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches for both teams and the hosts' deteriorated defense, I prefer BTTS - Yes as the more likely outcome.

Based on xG I expect approximately 1.34 goals for Al Ahly (xG_for 1.28 vs opponent xG_against 1.39) and 1.12 for ENPPI (xG_for 1.04 vs opponent xG_against 1.20), giving a total of ≈2.46 goals. In the last 5 matches both teams combined averaged 3.0 goals per match (Al Ahly 1.6, ENPPI 1.4), which increases the likelihood of exceeding the 1.5 line. Seasonal indicators are mixed: the share of matches over 2.5 is 27% (Al Ahly) and 36% (ENPPI), while over 1.5 occurred in 45% (Al Ahly) and 71% (ENPPI) of matches, so historically over 1.5 has a stronger basis than over 2.5. Additionally, Al Ahly averages 4.09 shots on target versus ENPPI’s 2.36 and keeps a clean sheet in 55% of matches, so the offensive/defensive balance favors a moderate number of goals. In summary, the strongest signal is over 1.5 (selection: over, line 1.5) — I estimate probability of over 1.5 ≈72%, over 2.5 ≈45% and over 3.5 ≈12%.

ENPPI leads at the break in 36% of matches, while Al Ahly only in 18%; half-time draws occur in 45% of the hosts' games. Despite a weaker half-time goal output (Al Ahly 0.36 HT goals vs ENPPI 0.64), Al Ahly wins 45% of matches and has a higher xG — 1.28 vs 1.04 — and more shots on target (4.09 vs 2.36), giving them greater potential for improvement after the break. Al Ahly keep a clean sheet in 55% of matches compared to ENPPI's 36%, and in the last five matches the hosts led at the break in 40% of cases versus 20% for the visitors, indicating improved form in first halves. Considering the frequent half-time draws (45%) and Al Ahly’s advantage in xG and shots, the most likely scenario is a draw at Half-Time and a home win at Full-Time (X/1), which I estimate at 30% probability.