Al Ittihad vs Al Hazm: match statistics

Al Ittihad holds a clear advantage in game control and chance creation — 62% average possession and 14.5 shots with 5.33 on-target per home match versus 44% possession, 9.31 shots and 3.92 on-target for Al Hazm away. This translates into chance quality: home xG averages 1.77 versus 1.11 xG for the visitors away, with hosts scoring 1.25 goals per home match on average and Al Hazm only 1.00. The home defense is seasonally more solid — 0.92 conceded per home match versus 1.62 conceded by Al Hazm away; hosts have 33% clean sheets versus 8% for the visitors, and across the season Ittihad conceded 34 goals versus Hazm’s 47. In the short term Al Hazm has slightly better points form (1.4 points per match in the last 5 vs 1.0 for Ittihad) and scored 7 goals in the last 5 matches compared to 6 for the hosts, however the visitors’ negative away goal difference (-8) and lower xG limit their realistic chances. On this basis I predict an Al Ittihad win; I estimate the probability at approximately 68% for a home win, 18% for a draw and 14% for an away win.

Indicators favor BTTS - Yes: Al Ittihad has a seasonal percentage of matches with both teams scoring at 69%, Al Hazm 62%, and the league average 59%, with BTTS in the last 5 matches at 80%. xG and shot metrics confirm risk of goals from both sides — Al Ittihad generates average xG 1.41 against an Al Hazm defense conceding xG 1.54, while Al Hazm has xG 1.11 against an Al Ittihad defense allowing xG 1.36; additionally Al Ittihad scores on average 1.23 goals per season, Al Hazm 1.00. Both teams rarely keep clean sheets (8% of matches each) and in the last 5 games they conceded on average 1.8 goals each, reducing the likelihood of a No Goal outcome. Home side averages 12.54 shots (4.0 on target), visitors 9.31 (3.92 on target) with conversion rates of 10% and 11%; the high share of matches over 2.5 goals (69% for the home team and 62% for the visitors) and a 62% combination rate of Over 2.5 & BTTS for the home side indicate an open game. Therefore I assign 75% to BTTS - Yes and 25% to No Goal.

Combination of xG and form: Al Ittihad's attack has xG 1.41, Al Hazm's defense concedes xG 1.54, yielding a projected 1.48 goals for the home side; conversely Al Hazm's attack xG 1.11 and Al Ittihad's defense 1.36 suggest 1.24 for the visitors, totaling 2.72 expected goals. Seasonally 92% of Al Ittihad’s matches and 85% of Al Hazm’s matches exceed the 1.5 goal line, and the league average is 3.03 goals per game, therefore I strongly favor Over 1.5 (probability ~92%). The 2.5 line has moderate backing: 69% of Al Ittihad’s matches and 62% of Al Hazm’s matches this season exceed 2.5 goals, and in the last 5 matches the hosts scored 6 goals (1.2 avg), the visitors 7 goals (1.4 avg), which supports Over 2.5 at roughly 64%. The 3.5 line is less likely: only 38% of Al Ittihad’s matches and 23% of Al Hazm’s matches exceed 3.5 goals, so I assess Under 3.5 at about 69%. Additionally, the percentage of matches with both teams scoring is 69% for the home side and 62% for the away side, and average shots on target around 4.0 and 3.92 confirm the offensive nature of the game, which further argues that Over 1.5 is the best choice.

Al Ittihad draws at half-time in 69% of home matches, while Al Hazm led at the break in 31% of their games; in the last five matches the visitors scored 7 goals by half-time versus only 3 for the hosts. The home side have the superior offensive edge: on average 12.54 shots and 1.41 xG at home compared to Al Hazm’s 9.31 shots and 1.11 xG, giving them greater potential for a turnaround after the break. In the second half Al Ittihad scores an average of 0.85 goals (vs 0.54 for the visitors) and 92% of their matches feature at least one goal after half-time; additionally the hosts have scored as many as 10 goals in minutes 76–90, indicating effective finishes. The visitors win only 23% of matches as the away team, and the hosts lead at the break in only 8% of home games, so the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1).