Al Merreikh vs Al Hilal Omdurman: match statistics

The favorite is Al Hilal Omdurman: they have 23 wins this season and 72 goals scored, while Al Merreikh has 16 wins and 38 goals. In the last 5 matches Hilal scored 9 goals, conceded only 2 and have a record of 3 wins and 2 draws (averaging 2.2 points per game), whereas Merreikh scored 10 goals, lost 2 matches and have 3 wins (averaging 1.8 points per game). At home Merreikh average 1.53 goals scored and concede 0.73 per game, with an average xG of 1.50; Hilal away average 2.00 goals scored and also concede 0.73, with an average xG of 1.33. The key advantage for the visitors is efficiency: Hilal’s shot conversion rate away is 22% versus Merreikh’s 13% at home, and the visitors have 0% of away matches without a goal compared to 20% for the hosts. Considering the leaders’ position, superior goal difference (72–22 vs 38–18) and higher away win rate (73% vs 53%), I predict an Al Hilal win.

In my assessment the more likely scenario is “No” (both teams not to score) at 62% vs 38% for “Yes”. The home side averages 2.47 goals scored and 0.65 conceded per match, while the away side has 2.00 scored and 0.73 conceded; despite these averages the seasonal BTTS rate is 41% for the home team and 53% for the away team, producing a league average of 45%. Additionally the home team kept a clean sheet in 59% of matches, the away team in 47%, and the league recorded clean sheets in 68% of fixtures, so defensive outcomes strongly work against BTTS. Offensively xG is 1.37 for the home team and 1.33 for the away team, however the home team’s high conversion (32% vs 22%) and higher shots on target (4.13 vs 3.8) suggest goals arise more from one-sided efficiency than mutual scoring. In the last 5 rounds both teams produced BTTS in only 40% of cases, and the away side conceded only 2 goals in the last 5 matches (home conceded 4), which further supports a “No” selection.

Both teams give a strong signal for Over 1.5: Al Merreikh averages 2.47 goals per match, Al Hilal 2.00, and percentages of matches above 1.5 are 88% and 93%, implying a high probability of ~92%. xG analysis shows home xG 1.37 versus opponents’ average xG conceded 0.88 (estimated 1.12 home goals) and away xG 1.33 against home defense xG conceded 0.74 (estimated 1.04 away goals), totaling ~2.16 expected goals. Home side averages 8.0 shots and 4.13 on target with a conversion rate of 32%, while visitors average 9.07 shots and 3.8 on target with a 22% conversion, explaining the season’s overperformance of xG in actual goals scored. Season over 2.5 rates are 59% (home) and 53% (away) — yielding a moderate ~56% chance for Over 2.5, whereas Over 3.5 has low support (29% and 27% -> ~28%). Consequently, the strongest and safest signal is Over 1.5 (pick: Over at the 1.5 line) given the high average goals scored 2.47/2.00 and combined xG=2.16.

Hosts lead at the break in 59% of their home matches, averaging 1.00 goal by half-time while conceding only 0.24, which gives them a clear advantage in the first 45 minutes. Over the full match Al Merreikh averages 2.47 goals versus Al Hilal’s 2.00, posts slightly higher xG (1.37 vs 1.33) and lower xG against (0.74 vs 0.88), indicating greater control and efficiency across the game. Additionally, the hosts register 76% clean sheets at half-time and 59% full-match clean sheets, while the visitors have 73% and 47% respectively, so both teams rarely concede in the first half but Al Merreikh converts this more often into goals. Considering also the hosts’ greater second-half output (1.88 goals on average vs the visitors’ 1.53), the strongest signal is the scenario of the hosts leading at the break and winning the match (1/1).