Al Riyadh vs Al Quadisiya: match statistics

Al Quadisiya have won all 5 of their away matches so far, while Al Riyadh have won 3 of their 4 home games, so home advantage does not rule out the hosts’ chances. The visitors average 2.6 goals per away match, compared with Al Riyadh’s 1.25 at home, and their average xG is 1.83 against the hosts’ 1.14, pointing to an edge in the quality of chances created. This is also reflected in shots on target: Al Quadisiya average 6.2 per away match, compared with 3.75 in their opponents’ home games. The visitors’ defense concedes just 0.2 goals per match away from home and has kept a clean sheet in 80% of those games, while the hosts concede an average of 1.25 goals at home. However, Al Riyadh have conceded only 3 goals in their last 5 matches, so despite the visitors’ clear advantage, a draw cannot be ruled out entirely.

Al Riyadh have seen both teams score in 83% of their matches, averaging 2.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded, which points towards goals at both ends. Al Quadisiya have averaged 2.60 goals, while the hosts have yet to keep a clean sheet, making an away goal seem likely. The bigger question is whether Al Riyadh can score, as the visitors have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their matches and conceded just 0.20 goals on average. However, their average xG conceded is 1.12, and over their last five matches they have conceded an average of 1.0 goal and recorded BTTS in 60% of games. Therefore, despite the visitors’ strong defensive record, I narrowly favor the BTTS - Yes scenario.

Al Riyadh average 2.17 goals scored and 1.83 conceded at home, with at least 2 goals scored in 83% of those matches. Al Quadisiya average 2.6 goals scored away from home and have averaged 2.2 goals in their last 5 matches. Both teams record more than 6 shots on target per match, supporting a prediction of at least two goals. Higher lines are less certain: Al Quadisiya have kept a clean sheet in 80% of their away matches, while Al Riyadh have gone over 2.5 goals in only 20% of their last 5 matches. Therefore, Over 1.5 is the strongest pick, despite a projected total of 2.85 goals.

The strongest scenario is Al Quadisiya leading at the break and winning after 90 minutes. In their last five matches, the visitors led at half-time three times and scored an average of 1.2 goals before the break, while Al Riyadh averaged just 0.2 goals in the first half and went into half-time trailing twice. The visitors’ advantage after the break is supported by the data from the away-match sample: they averaged 1.6 goals in second halves and conceded none, while the hosts conceded an average of 1.17 goals in that period. Caution is warranted, however, as Al Riyadh led at half-time in 4 of 6 home matches, while Al Quadisiya were level at the break in 3 of 5 away matches—so X/2 remains a close alternative.