Alanyaspor vs Samsunspor: match statistics

Alanyaspor concedes an average of 0.87 goals per home match and keeps clean sheets in 53% of home games, while Samsunspor concedes 1.53 goals away and records only 20% clean sheets — a clear defensive edge for the hosts. Offensively the visitors are more efficient: Samsunspor scores 1.4 goals away with a 12% conversion rate and only 13% of away matches without a goal, whereas Alanyaspor scores 1.2 goals at home with a 9% conversion and 33% of home matches without scoring. xG indicates the hosts create more chances (xG 1.47 at home vs xG 1.29 for the visitors away) but convert them less effectively. In the last 5 matches Alanyaspor averages 1.0 point and Samsunspor 1.6 points (both teams scored 7 goals). Considering Alanyaspor’s solid defense and Samsunspor’s higher finishing efficiency, I project a tight game with a higher probability of a draw (most likely 1:1) than a clear victory for either side.

I back "BTTS - Yes" because Samsunspor shows a very strong BTTS signal: 73% this season and 80% in the last 5 matches, while Alanyaspor records 53% BTTS this season and only 40% in the last 5. Both teams regularly score and concede — Alanyaspor averages 1.0 goals at home and concedes 1.07, and Samsunspor scores 1.4 goals away and concedes 1.53, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. Additionally, xG indicates the hosts generate 1.53 xG at home, while average xG against them versus Samsunspor is 1.43, and clean sheets are rare: 33% for Alanyaspor and 20% for Samsunspor. Considering these figures and the league BTTS average of 54%, I assess the probability of BTTS at 70% for "Yes" and 30% for "No."

I estimate total expected goals at approximately 2.64: Alanyaspor ~1.48 (average xG 1.53 and xG allowed to visitors 1.43), Samsunspor ~1.16 (average xG 1.29 and xG allowed to hosts 1.03). A Poisson model with lambda=2.64 yields about a 74% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~49% for Over 2.5 and ~27% for Over 3.5. Stats corroborate this risk: both-teams-to-score rates are 53% for Alanyaspor and 73% for Samsunspor, and season percentages for Over 1.5 are 67% (home) and 80% (away). Alanyaspor averages 14.4 shots (4.07 on target), Samsunspor 11.87 (3.53 on target) and has a higher conversion 12% vs 7%, which increases the visitors’ scoring probability. The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 — it has the highest probability (~74%) and aligns with an xG of 2.64 and high Over 1.5 indicators for both teams.

A half-time draw appears most likely: Alanyaspor were level at the break in 60% of their home matches and scored only 0.33 goals on average in the first half. Samsunspor average 0.53 first-half goals and concede 0.8 in the first half, but are very dangerous after the break — averaging 1.6 goals in the second half and with 93% of matches featuring at least one second-half goal. The visitors convert shots more efficiently (12% vs 7% for the hosts) and have better recent form over the last five matches (40% wins vs the hosts’ 20%), which increases the chance of a turnaround. Alanyaspor generate higher xG (1.53 vs Samsunspor’s 1.29) and defend better on expected goals conceded (1.03 vs 1.43), which explains the frequent half-time draws, but their low finishing limits their chances of holding a lead. Given the hosts’ 60% half-time draws and Samsunspor’s very high (93%) share of second-half goals, the strongest signal is a Half-Time draw with a Full-Time win for the visitors (X/2).