Alianza Lima vs ADT: match statistics

Alianza Lima have a clear home advantage: they win 77% of their home matches, scoring an average of 2.23 goals and conceding just 0.69. ADT have won only 8% of their away games, averaging 0.83 goals scored, while failing to find the net in 42% of their away fixtures. The hosts create significantly more, averaging 20.38 shots and 6.77 shots on target per match, compared with 10.08 and 3.33 respectively for ADT. The difference in chance quality is reflected in Alianza’s home xG of 2.15 versus ADT’s away xG of 1.07, while the visitors allow opponents 1.48 xG. Neither side has been in impressive form recently, but ADT have lost 3 of their previous five matches and conceded 13 goals in that run, strongly supporting the case for an Alianza Lima win.

The signal for both teams to score is moderately positive: Alianza Lima recorded BTTS in 54% of matches, while ADT did so in 50%, against a league average of 57%. Recent form provides stronger support for the “Yes” option, as BTTS occurred in 60% of Alianza’s and as many as 80% of ADT’s last five matches. ADT conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game during this period, while the hosts generated a high 2.08 xG, so Alianza should have excellent conditions to find the net. The visitors are less reliable in attack, however, having failed to score in 42% of their league matches and averaging only 0.8 goals across their last five games, although their xG of 1.40 leaves a realistic chance of scoring. BTTS - Yes is marginally the better pick, mainly due to ADT’s weak defense and the elevated BTTS frequency in both teams’ current form.

Alianza Lima create chances worth an average of 1.71 xG at home and register 16.08 shots per match, while ADT concede an average of 1.92 goals and 1.48 xG away from home. The hosts should therefore have a clear advantage, although their finishing has declined in their last 5 matches to 0.8 goals scored per game. ADT have also managed just 0.8 goals per match during this period, while Alianza Lima have limited opponents to only 1.01 xG in their last five games. Historically, matches involving the two teams have finished Under 3.5 goals in 69% and 67% of cases respectively, while Over 3.5 goals occurred in only 31% and 33% of matches. The projected total of 2.50 goals points to a controlled home win scenario, making Under 3.5 goals the safest option.

A draw at half-time followed by an Alianza Lima win is the most likely outcome, as ADT were level at the break in 58% of their matches, with only 8% of games seeing them lead. The hosts possess greater attacking potential: their average xG is 1.71 compared with ADT’s 1.07, while they also average 16.08 shots and 5.77 shots on target per match, against their opponents’ 10.08 and 3.33 respectively. Alianza score an average of 0.69 goals before half-time, but ADT concede only 0.58 in this period, which points to a closely contested opening. After the break, however, the visitors concede as many as 1.33 goals per match, and at least one goal is scored in the second half in 83% of their games, so the hosts’ superiority should be decisive in the closing stages. The X/1 scenario is further supported by ADT’s poor form: they have failed to win any of their last five matches and conceded an average of 2.6 goals.