Alianza Lima vs UTC Cajamarca: match statistics

Alianza Lima are clear favorites, winning 90% of their home matches, averaging 2.7 goals and remaining unbeaten on home soil. The hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 18.7 shots, including 7.2 on target, while their xG stands at 2.03 compared with UTC Cajamarca’s 1.40 away from home. Alianza’s defense concedes just 0.6 goals per home game, with an xG against of 0.83, whereas UTC allow opponents to score 2.27 goals per away match and have kept no clean sheets. The visitors are also winless in their last 5 matches, scoring just 5 goals during that run, and have lost 64% of their away league fixtures. Alianza’s run of three draws in their last five league matches slightly increases the likelihood of a stalemate, but the hosts’ clear advantage in chance quality, finishing and defensive organization strongly points to a home win.

The BTTS signal is clear, as Alianza Lima have seen both teams score in 100% of their last 5 matches, compared with 80% for UTC Cajamarca. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded, while the visitors scored 1.0 goal but allowed opponents to find the net 2.0 times. UTC have not kept a clean sheet at any point this season, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per match, which strongly supports at least one Alianza goal. At the same time, the xG from the last five matches stands at 1.68 for the hosts and 1.58 for the visitors, meaning UTC’s numbers suggest a genuine chance of breaking through the opponent’s defense. Although Alianza have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their matches this season, the high recent BTTS frequency of both teams points towards a scenario in which each side scores.

The strongest signal points to at least two goals, as UTC matches have gone over the 1.5 line in 100% of games, compared with 60% for Alianza Lima. UTC concede as many as 2.27 goals per match on average and have kept no clean sheets, while Alianza generate an average of 1.41 xG and have scored 1.8 goals per game across their last five appearances. The visitors also possess the attacking potential to respond, generating 1.40 xG and averaging 4.73 shots on target, although the more solid home defense limits their projected tally to 1.05 goals. In the last five matches for both teams, the 2.5 line has been covered 60% of the time, but Alianza’s season-long caution, with 70% of results finishing under 2.5, reduces the edge for the over at the higher line. Therefore, Over 1.5 offers a clearer advantage than Over 2.5, with a projected total of 2.70 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by an Alianza Lima win at full-time, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 60% of their matches, while UTC were trailing at that stage in 55% of games. Alianza defend very solidly before the break, conceding an average of just 0.2 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 80% of first halves, whereas UTC score only 0.18 goals during this period. After the interval, the hosts’ advantage should grow: in their last five matches, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded, while UTC have allowed opponents 1.27 goals per game after half-time over the season. The visitors have lost 64% of their matches this season and have not kept a single clean sheet, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per game. Although the two teams’ xG figures are similar—1.41 for Alianza compared with 1.40 for UTC—the hosts’ stronger current form, averaging 1.8 goals per game in their last five matches compared with 1.0 for the visitors, further supports the X/1 outcome.