Altay vs Tobol: match statistics
Altay vs Tobol: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Altay play Tobol in Kazakhstan Premier League (Kazakhstan). The match date is 4 July 2026 at 14:00. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
Altay: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Tobol: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Altay scores 0.78 and concedes 1.22 goals per match. Tobol scores 1.11 and concedes 1.44. League average: 2.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Altay 44%, Tobol 61%. Over 2.5: Altay 28%, Tobol 50%. League level: BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
xG, shots and style
Tobol has higher xG: 1.55 vs 1.25. Altay: 10.7 shots per match, Tobol: 13.3.
Match halves
Altay: half-time lead 6%, second-half goals 0.61. Tobol: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.56.
Goals by minute
Altay: 76-90+ (7 goals). Tobol: 0-15 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Kazakhstan Premier League: 2.31 goals per match, BTTS 52%, Over 2.5 42%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
I predict an away win ('2'), as Tobol shows a clearly superior recent run: in the last 5 matches the visitors scored 7 goals and have a record of 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, while Altay in their last 5 have 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses scoring 5 goals. Tobol controls play more often on the road (average possession 52% vs 43% for Altay at home) and attempts more shots (11.63 vs 10.38), which translates into a higher xG 1.27 versus 1.20; this suggests the visitors create marginally better goalscoring chances. Altay’s advantage is a stronger home defence — the hosts concede on average 1.00 goal per home match vs Tobol’s 1.88 conceded away — however Altay’s real problem is efficiency: the hosts score only 0.63 goals per game and fail to score in 63% of home matches. Altay register more shots on target (avg. 3.5 on-target per game vs 2.88 for Tobol) but have only about a 6% conversion rate versus about 5% for the visitors, indicating poor finishing quality and pointing to a match with few clear chances. Considering the average points from the last 5 matches (Tobol 1.4 vs Altay 0.4), the visitors’ better scoring consistency and the fact Altay have yet to win at home, I give Tobol the edge with 52% probability, 30% for a draw and 18% for an Altay win.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Altay | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 31% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.19 | 0.27 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Tobol is 42% better for: goals scored per match.
0.78 goals / match - Altay · 1.11 goals / match - Tobol
Altay is 18% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.22 goals / match - Altay · 1.44 goals / match - Tobol
Altay scores in 56% of matches (10 of 18 matches), while Tobol keeps a clean sheet in 11% (2 of 18 matches).
Tobol scores in 72% of matches (13 of 18 matches), while Altay keeps a clean sheet in 28% (5 of 18 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Altay
Over / Under — Tobol
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Tobol is 78% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.72 pts / match - Altay · 1.28 pts / match - Tobol
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Altay - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 6% of matches and wins 17%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Tobol - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 28%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +2 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 0-15 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (5 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Altay
Tobol
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Kazakhstan Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Altay | Liga | Tobol | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.00 | 2.31 | ▲ 2.56 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 44% | 52% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 28% | 42% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | • 28% | 29% | ▼ 11% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 56% | 62% | • 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 61% | 70% | ▲ 78% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Altay 0 - 0 - 1 Tobol. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Altay vs Tobol?
The Kazakhstan Premier League match finished Altay 1:0 Tobol. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Altay vs Tobol?
Altay score 0.78 goals per game on average and Tobol 1.11. The Kazakhstan Premier League average is 2.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 42% of games. Both teams score in 44% of Altay's matches and 61% of Tobol's.
What form are Altay and Tobol in?
Over the last 5 games Altay have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Tobol 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Altay vs Tobol?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.