Ansan Greeners vs Seongnam: match statistics

Seongnam sit higher in the table, in 11th place compared with Ansan Greeners in 15th, and have collected 9 points from their last five matches thanks to 3 wins. During the same period, the hosts have won just once and conceded as many as 11 goals, while the visitors have allowed their opponents to score 6. Ansan’s defense looks particularly vulnerable at home: they concede an average of 2.00 goals per game, with an xG against of 1.97, and have kept no clean sheets. Away from home, Seongnam create more shots on average—11.3 compared with the hosts’ 9.17—and also show a clear advantage in out-of-possession play, allowing an xG of 1.37 compared with Ansan’s 1.97. Although the visitors are not particularly clinical away from home and have failed to score in 30% of such matches, their current form and defensive superiority point towards a narrow victory.

Seongnam have recorded BTTS in 70% of their matches this season, while Ansan Greeners have done so in 50%, compared with a league average of 63%. This provides a moderately positive signal for both teams to score. The hosts have conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game across their last five matches and allowed opponents an xG of 1.72, while Seongnam averaged 1.2 goals scored during this period. However, Ansan have created more chances over the course of the season, with an average xG of 1.70 and 4.2 shots on target per match, while Seongnam have kept a clean sheet in only 10% of their games. On the other hand, Ansan’s recent xG has dropped to 0.85, and Seongnam have recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last five appearances, so the case for BTTS - Yes is not particularly strong. Nevertheless, the visitors’ weak defense, conceding 1.5 goals per game this season, together with Ansan’s current defensive problems, makes a BTTS outcome more likely.

The strongest signal is Under 3.5 goals, as at least 4 goals were scored in only 20% of Ansan’s matches and 30% of Seongnam’s games. The hosts average 1.0 goal per match, while the visitors average 1.1, with neither team scoring more than 2 goals in a game in over 10% of their matches. Ansan’s recent defensive form is weaker, having conceded 11 goals in 5 matches; however, its xG created during this period is only 0.85. Seongnam has averaged 1.22 xG over its last five matches, while the combined projected total of 2.45 goals supports a 2–3 goal scenario rather than an open exchange leading to four goals.

The strongest signal is Seongnam’s current first-half form: the visitors were leading at the break in 80% of their last five matches, while Ansan were trailing at that stage in 60%. Over the same period, Seongnam averaged 1.0 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded before half-time, whereas Ansan scored 0.4 and allowed opponents to score 1.4 goals. The visitors are also in better overall form, winning 60% of their last five matches and averaging 1.8 points, compared with Ansan’s 20% win rate and 1.0-point average. Although the hosts have a better full-season home record, Seongnam should take advantage of Ansan’s recent defensive weakness, with the hosts conceding an average of 2.2 goals across their last five outings. Therefore, the most likely scenario is a Seongnam lead at the break followed by a full-time victory, making the HT/FT pick 2/2.