Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match favoring a draw scenario. Arba Minch Kenema sits at the bottom of the table and has not won a home match this season (0% Win%), yet their return of 1.6 PPG over their last five matches suggests an upturn in form. Mebrat Hayl presents a solid defensive line away from home (50% Clean Sheets%, averaging 0.8 goals conceded) but struggles significantly in attack—they have failed to score or win in their last five outings. Both teams possess high draw rates (hosts 50% at home, visitors 50% away) and low scoring efficiency. Given the poor goal-scoring form of both sides, high FTS% figures, and a propensity for stalemates, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Arba Minch Kenema play Mebrat Hayl in Ethiopia Premier League (Ethiopia). The match date is 4 March 2026 at 16:00. Final score: 1:4.
Current form
Arba Minch Kenema: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match. Mebrat Hayl: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Arba Minch Kenema scores 0.79 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Mebrat Hayl scores 0.84 and concedes 0.68. League average: 1.78 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Arba Minch Kenema 42%, Mebrat Hayl 37%. Over 2.5: Arba Minch Kenema 29%, Mebrat Hayl 26%. League level: BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
xG, shots and style
xG is very similar for both teams. Arba Minch Kenema: 7.3 shots per match, Mebrat Hayl: 7.0.
Match halves
Arba Minch Kenema: half-time lead 24%, second-half goals 0.39. Mebrat Hayl: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
Arba Minch Kenema: 31-45+ (8 goals). Mebrat Hayl: 46-60 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ethiopia Premier League: 1.78 goals per match, BTTS 40%, Over 2.5 28%.
Head-to-head
1 H2H matches: 0-0-1. Average goals 4.00, BTTS 100%.
Match description
Statistical analysis points to a balanced match favoring a draw scenario. Arba Minch Kenema sits at the bottom of the table and has not won a home match this season (0% Win%), yet their return of 1.6 PPG over their last five matches suggests an upturn in form. Mebrat Hayl presents a solid defensive line away from home (50% Clean Sheets%, averaging 0.8 goals conceded) but struggles significantly in attack—they have failed to score or win in their last five outings. Both teams possess high draw rates (hosts 50% at home, visitors 50% away) and low scoring efficiency. Given the poor goal-scoring form of both sides, high FTS% figures, and a propensity for stalemates, a split of points is the most probable outcome.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Arba Minch Kenema | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 32% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.15 | 0.16 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.34 | 0.38 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Mebrat Hayl is 33% better for: last-5 form.
1.2 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.6 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Mebrat Hayl is 6% better for: goals scored per match.
0.79 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.84 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Mebrat Hayl is 78% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.21 goals / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 0.68 goals / match - Mebrat Hayl
Arba Minch Kenema scores in 53% of matches (20 of 38 matches), while Mebrat Hayl keeps a clean sheet in 47% (18 of 38 matches).
Mebrat Hayl scores in 55% of matches (21 of 38 matches), while Arba Minch Kenema keeps a clean sheet in 29% (11 of 38 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — Arba Minch Kenema
Over / Under — Mebrat Hayl
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Mebrat Hayl is 23% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Arba Minch Kenema · 1.29 pts / match - Mebrat Hayl
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Arba Minch Kenema - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 24% of matches and wins 18%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Mebrat Hayl - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 34%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.80 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +1 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | 0 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goli). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (9 goli). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Arba Minch Kenema
Mebrat Hayl
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ethiopia Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Arba Minch Kenema | Liga | Mebrat Hayl | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 2.00 | 1.78 | ▼ 1.53 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 42% | 40% | ▼ 37% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 29% | 28% | ▼ 26% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 29% | 40% | ▲ 47% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 71% | 56% | ▼ 39% |
| Goal after half-time | • 58% | 59% | ▲ 63% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Arba Minch Kenema 0 - 0 - 1 Mebrat Hayl. Average goals 4.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
The Ethiopia Premier League match finished Arba Minch Kenema 1:4 Mebrat Hayl. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Arba Minch Kenema score 0.79 goals per game on average and Mebrat Hayl 0.84. The Ethiopia Premier League average is 1.78 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 28% of games. Both teams score in 42% of Arba Minch Kenema's matches and 37% of Mebrat Hayl's.
What form are Arba Minch Kenema and Mebrat Hayl in?
Over the last 5 games Arba Minch Kenema have a 2-0-3 record (1.20 points per game) and Mebrat Hayl 2-2-1 (1.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Arba Minch Kenema vs Mebrat Hayl: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.