Arbroath vs Raith Rovers: match statistics

Arbroath at home scores an average of 1.56 goals per match with an average xG of 1.29, registering 3.5 shots on target and a shot conversion rate of 16%, while Raith away scores only 0.5 goals on average with an xG of 1.21, has 2.94 shots on target and a conversion of 5%. The hosts fail to score in only 19% of home matches, whereas Raith fail to score in 63% of their away games, giving Arbroath a clear edge in offensive efficiency. Defensively the tie is balanced — Raith concedes 1.0 goal on average away versus 1.19 conceded by Arbroath at home, and the visitors have more clean sheets on the road (56% vs 31%). Although Raith are in better recent form (4 wins in 5 and an average of 2.4 points in that period vs 0.8 points for Arbroath), the higher conversion rate and lower share of goalless home games lead me to favor an Arbroath win.

Arbroath at home averages 1.82 goals scored and concedes 1.18 per match this season, with 11.82 shots and 4.18 on target and a conversion rate of 15%, giving them realistic scoring potential. Raith Rovers have a poor season away average of 0.50 goals, but in the last 5 matches they scored 12 goals (2.4 per game) and have an average xG of 1.6 in that period, so they are in good attacking form. Seasonal BTTS rate is 41% for Arbroath and 19% for Raith, however in the last five matches of both teams BTTS occurred in 40% of fixtures, and the league average is 48% matches with both teams scoring, which increases the likelihood of a Goal/Goal. Additionally Arbroath concedes 1.18 goals on the season (1.4 in the last 5), and Raith have recently produced significant goal output, which offsets Raith’s high seasonal clean sheet expected rate of 56%. Considering Raith’s recent efficiency (12 goals in 5 matches) and Arbroath’s susceptibility to conceding, the BTTS - Yes scenario looks more probable, estimated at roughly 60% for 'yes' and 40% for 'no'.

I estimate total expected goals at 2.49: 1.29 for Arbroath and 1.20 for Raith Rovers, calculated as home xG average 1.41 and xG against visitors 1.17 (=> 1.29) and away xG 1.21 and xG against hosts 1.18 (=> 1.20). With a mean of 2.49, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is about 71% by the Poisson distribution, which aligns with the seasonal rates: home Over1.5 = 94% and away = 50%. The 2.5 line is balanced: I estimate Over 2.5 at roughly 45% vs Under 55%, since the expected total 2.49 sits just below the 2.5 threshold, and seasonal Over2.5 is 53% (home) and 25% (away). I assess Over 3.5 at about 24% (seasonal Over3.5: home 29%, away 6%). The strongest signal is therefore Over 1.5 (over 71%), additionally supported by the higher home shot conversion 15% versus 5% for the visitors. Note, however, that in the last 5 matches Arbroath averaged 0.8 goals while Raith Rovers averaged 2.4 goals, which increases variance and explains the moderate probability for Over 2.5.

A draw at half-time appears very likely: Arbroath led at the break in 29% of their matches, Raith Rovers only in 13%, while a half-time draw occurs in 24% for hosts and 63% for visitors, giving an average of about a 44% chance of a draw at the break. Arbroath, however, is significantly stronger after the break — their average goals in the second half are 1.35 versus 0.19 for Raith, and the hosts won the second half in 65% of matches compared to 13% for the visitors. The difference in efficiency also favors Arbroath: a shot conversion rate of 15% versus 5% for Raith and xG 1.41 versus 1.21 suggest the hosts have a greater ability to turn chances into goals. For these reasons the most likely scenario is a Half-Time draw and a Full-Time win for the hosts (X/1), which I assign a 30% probability; as alternatives I give 1/1 15%, X/X 18% and 2/2 10%, with the remaining combinations having a lower combined probability.