Aris vs Levadiakos: match statistics

I predict a draw (X). Aris at home averages 16.33 shots and 4.87 shots on target per match with an average xG of 1.73, concedes only 0.93 goals per game, but has low finishing efficiency — conversion just 7% and in 40% of home matches failed to score. Levadiakos away averages 9.8 shots (3.8 on target), has higher conversion 15% and scores 1.47 on average, yet concedes 1.6 goals away and has lower attacking xG (1.20). In the last 5 matches Aris recorded 4 wins and 1 draw (11 goals, 2.6 points per game), while Levadiakos has 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss (12 goals, 2.0 points per game), giving the hosts a slight form edge. Considering Aris’ superior chance creation (xG 1.73 vs 1.20), better home defense (0.93 vs 1.6) and simultaneously a high home draw rate (60%), I expect an even match with a slightly higher probability of a draw.

Primary signal for BTTS: Aris has a both-teams-to-score rate of 63%, Levadiakos 53% — both above the league average of 48%, providing the first strong argument for Goal/Goal. In the last 5 matches Aris records BTTS in 80% of games and Levadiakos in 60%; over that period Aris averaged 2.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, while Levadiakos averaged 2.4 scored and 1.4 conceded, meaning both sides simultaneously create and allow goals. xG and shots data corroborate this: Aris has a season xG of 1.49 and averages 5.25 shots on target, Levadiakos has xG 1.20 and 3.8 SOT, and Levadiakos concedes 1.6 goals per game versus 1.25 conceded by Aris — this favors goal exchange. Additionally Aris scored 11 goals in the last 5 matches, Levadiakos 12, with relatively low clean sheet rates (Aris 31% vs Levadiakos 20%), hence the BTTS - Yes scenario appears more probable.

I project a total of approximately 3.08 goals in the match: expected goals are about 1.77 for Aris and 1.31 for Levadiakos, obtained by averaging season averages (Aris 2.56 goals/game, Levadiakos 1.47) and xG figures (Aris xG 1.49, Levadiakos xG 1.20). Strong signal for Over 1.5 stems from Aris having Over1.5 in 81% of matches and Levadiakos in 93% of this season’s fixtures, so I assign Over1.5 an 82% probability versus 18% for under. I rate Over 2.5 at around 60% because season values are 69% (Aris) and 60% (Levadiakos), and in the last 5 matches both teams recorded Over2.5 at 60%, supporting the ~3.08 goals total. I treat Over 3.5 more conservatively at 37% even though Aris has a high 63% of home matches >3.5, because Levadiakos is only at 40% and xG/recent form reduce the likelihood of reaching 4+ goals. Additionally, Aris averages 12.94 shots and 5.25 on target with a 20% conversion rate, which increases the risk of quick goals and justifies favoring Over 1.5 as the strongest signal.

Aris holds a clear advantage in match metrics: over the season they average 2.56 goals per game versus Levadiakos’ 1.47 and have a higher xG per game (1.49 vs 1.20), with an average of 5.25 shots on target compared to the visitors’ 3.8. The home side frequently leads at the break — 7 matches this season (44%), and in the last five fixtures they led at half-time in 4 of 5 (80%), with half-time goal averages of 1.00 vs 0.53 for Levadiakos. After the break Aris also performs better: they record an average of 2.19 points in second halves and win 69% of those periods, while Levadiakos averages 1.8 points and succeeds in 53% — this increases the likelihood that a lead at the break will be maintained. Additionally, the hosts have a higher season win rate (63% vs 33%) and superior shot conversion (20% vs 15%), so the scenario Aris leads at half-time and wins at full-time (1/1) is the strongest. Based on these data I assigned 1/1 the highest probability (~42%), with secondary chances for half-time draw / full-time home win (X/1 15%) and draw/draw (X/X 9%).