Asan Mugunghwa vs Cheongju: match statistics

Asan Mugunghwa have a clear edge at home: they win 50% of their home fixtures, score an average of 1.75 goals, and have not been held scoreless in any match there. Cheongju win just 9% of their away games, average 1.18 goals, and fail to score in 27% of those fixtures. The hosts create slightly better chances, as reflected by an xG of 1.34 compared with the visitors’ 1.28, and are also more clinical in front of goal, with a 16% shot conversion rate versus Cheongju’s 12%. Both teams’ recent form has been similarly poor, with each averaging 0.8 points per game across their last five fixtures and conceding 9 goals. The draw remains a significant possibility, as Cheongju draw 73% of their away matches; however, Asan’s attacking edge at home points towards a narrow home win.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are very high: Asan Mugunghwa has seen both teams score in 77% of its matches, while the figure stands at 73% for Cheongju, compared with the league average of 62%. The hosts have kept a clean sheet in only 15% of their matches and concede an average of 1.77 goals, which clearly strengthens Cheongju’s chances of scoring. Cheongju, in turn, has failed to score in 27% of its matches, but Asan Mugunghwa also has a weak defense, while the visitors have recently created chances worth 1.52 xG per match. Current form is slightly weaker in attack, as both teams have scored 1.0 and 0.8 goals respectively across their last five matches, but each has conceded as many as 1.8 goals per game during that period. BTTS - Yes therefore remains the most likely scenario, although the main risk to this pick comes from Cheongju’s lower recent scoring efficiency.

The strongest signal is Over 1.5 goals: at least two goals were scored in 85% of Asan Mugunghwa’s matches and 82% of Cheongju’s games. The hosts concede an average of 1.77 goals, while Cheongju concede 1.45 away from home, creating favorable conditions for at least two goals. The creative potential is also solid, with average xG figures of 1.54 for the hosts and 1.28 for the visitors, resulting in a combined projection of 2.60 goals. In their last five matches, both teams conceded 1.8 goals per game, despite their attacking output falling to 1.0 and 0.8 goals, respectively. This limits confidence in Over 2.5, but clearly supports the safer Over 1.5 line.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as the hosts were level after 45 minutes in 54% of their matches and the visitors in 36%, while Asan averaged only 0.54 goals scored and Cheongju 0.36 in the first half. Cheongju kept a clean sheet before the break in 64% of matches, while the hosts had not been trailing at half-time in their last five appearances, recording three draws and two leads. The full-time outcome is particularly strongly supported by Cheongju’s record: as many as 73% of their matches ended in a draw, compared with 46% of Asan’s matches. Both teams have similar points-per-game figures across the season—0.92 for the hosts and 1.00 for the visitors—and identical average xG conceded of 1.36, limiting either side’s advantage. Although the second half should be more open, the primary scenario remains an evenly balanced scoreline both at half-time and at full-time.