Atalanta II vs Nuova Monterosi: match statistics

Nuova Monterosi have the more favorable record this season: they won their only match 3:0, while Atalanta II lost their fixture 0:2. In their last five appearances, the visitors scored 8 goals, 3 more than the hosts, and averaged 1.2 points per match compared with Atalanta II’s 0.6. Atalanta II have drawn three of their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested game, but outside those draws they avoided defeat only once during that period. Both teams conceded 7 goals in their last five matches, so the visitors’ defense offers no complete guarantee; however, their superior attacking efficiency supports a Nuova Monterosi win.

The recent form of both teams points to goals at both ends: Atalanta II have recorded BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches, while Nuova Monterosi have done so in 40%. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, whereas the visitors scored 1.6 and also conceded 1.4 goals per match. Their attacking potential is supported by an xG of 1.28 for Atalanta II and 1.10 for Nuova Monterosi, with xG conceded at 1.27 and 1.57 respectively. However, the BTTS pick is only moderately strong, as the league average for both teams scoring is 40%, while the hosts kept a clean sheet in 100% of their available home matches. The main argument in favor of BTTS - Yes is the recent defensive weakness of both sides, with each team conceding 7 goals in their last five appearances.

Data from the last five matches points to a moderate goals profile: Atalanta II averaged 1.0 goal scored, while Nuova Monterosi averaged 1.6, with both teams conceding 1.4 goals per game. Their combined average xG stands at 2.38; however, the hosts generate just 1.28 xG and the visitors 1.10 xG, which does not suggest a regular occurrence of games exceeding four goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in 40% of Atalanta II’s recent matches and 60% of Nuova Monterosi’s, while the league average is only 2.1 goals per game. In this competition, just 30% of matches go over the 2.5 line, and as many as 70% finish with at least one team failing to score, supporting a lower-scoring outcome. The strongest selection is Under 3.5 goals, as the expected total of 2.20 and the league’s defensive nature clearly limit the probability of four goals being scored.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Nuova Monterosi victory at the final whistle (X/2). Atalanta II have failed to win any of their last five matches, averaging just 1.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while the visitors have won two of their five games and averaged 1.6 goals scored. In the first halves, both teams recorded identical figures, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match, while Nuova Monterosi were level at the break in 40% of their appearances. After the interval, the visitors’ advantage becomes more pronounced, as they average 1.0 goals compared with Atalanta II’s 0.4, and at least two goals were scored in three of their five second halves. Atalanta II’s only available home result was highly positive, but the sample is too small to outweigh their current five-match form and the visitors’ stronger attack.