Atalanta vs Bologna: match statistics

Atalanta come into the match with 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 defeat in their last 5 fixtures, while Bologna have suffered 3 defeats and recorded 2 wins over the same period. The hosts have scored 7 goals and conceded just 3 in those five matches, whereas Bologna’s record is also 7 goals scored, but as many as 8 conceded. At home, Atalanta won their only league match so far 2:1, averaging 14 shots, including 7 on target, while maintaining 56% possession. Their average xG stands at 1.60, but opponents are creating chances worth 2.27 xG against them, meaning a clean sheet for the hosts is unlikely. The lack of reliable away statistics for Bologna limits confidence in the prediction; however, Atalanta’s superior recent record and clear advantage in home performance quality point to a home win.

The “No” selection has a slight edge, as only 40% of league matches have seen both teams score, while clean sheets have occurred in 60% of games. Atalanta have conceded just 0.6 goals on average over their last 5 matches and allowed only 3 goals in total, significantly limiting Bologna’s chances of scoring. Bologna have averaged 1.4 goals during this period, but their xG was only 0.99, while Atalanta created chances worth 1.20 xG. The hosts scored 7 goals in five appearances, and Bologna conceded 8, making an Atalanta win with the visitors failing to score more likely than a goal exchange. Therefore, BTTS - No is the preferred pick: it means that at least one team will not score, not necessarily a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither side scores.

Atalanta and Bologna have scored 7 goals each in their last 5 matches, averaging 1.4 per game, while the hosts conceded just 0.6 goals per match during this period. Bologna, on the other hand, allowed 1.6 goals per game, which, combined with Atalanta’s average xG of 1.20, supports a scenario of around 1–2 goals for the hosts. The visitors created chances worth an average of 0.99 xG, while Atalanta, despite their strong defensive results, allowed opponents 1.60 xG, making a Bologna goal a realistic possibility. At least 3 goals were scored in 60% of the last five meetings between the two teams, but the projected total of 2.40 still clearly favors a game with a maximum of three goals. The strongest pick is Under 3.5, as breaking this line requires at least 4 goals—something supported by neither the expected goal production nor Atalanta’s solid defense.

Atalanta are in clearly better current form: over their last five matches, they averaged 2.0 points, won 60% of their games, and conceded just 0.6 goals per match, while Bologna lost 60% of their matches and allowed opponents to score 1.6 goals on average. The hosts are stronger even before half-time, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.2 conceded, compared with Bologna’s averages of just 0.33 goals scored and 1.33 conceded. Atalanta led at the break in 40% of their recent matches and never went into half-time trailing, whereas Bologna failed to lead at the break and were behind in 33% of cases. After the interval, the hosts still look more solid, with a second-half average of 0.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, compared with Bologna’s zero-goal average. The most likely outcome is therefore an Atalanta lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory: 1/1.