Atlanta United FC vs Charlotte: match statistics

Atlanta United have the clearer home advantage: they win 40% of their home matches, while Charlotte win just 22% of their away games and lose as many as 56% of them. The hosts create more chances at home, averaging 1.38 xG and 12.6 shots per match, compared with Charlotte’s 1.17 xG and 9.44 shots away from home. The visitors’ defense is particularly vulnerable to conceding, allowing an average of 2.11 goals away from home despite conceding 1.91 xG to opponents, while Atlanta score 1.5 goals per game at their own stadium. Both teams have been productive recently, with Atlanta scoring 9 goals and Charlotte 11 in their last five matches, but the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 games, and their edge in chance creation should prove decisive. The low number of clean sheets on both sides—10% for Atlanta and 11% for Charlotte—also points to a high-scoring match, in which a narrow home victory is the more likely outcome.

Atlanta has recorded BTTS in 75% of its matches, while Charlotte has done so in 67%—both figures are above the MLS league average of 63%. The hosts score an average of 2.17 goals at home, whereas Charlotte concedes as many as 2.11 goals away and keeps a clean sheet in only 11% of matches. Atlanta also offers no complete defensive guarantee: its average xG conceded stands at 1.43, and it conceded 2.0 goals per match across its last five fixtures. The visitors’ attacking form remains strong, as they have averaged 2.2 goals scored over their last five appearances with an xG of 1.44. A particularly strong signal is Atlanta’s run of form, with both teams scoring in each of its last five matches, making BTTS - Yes the more likely outcome.

Atlanta score an average of 2.17 goals at home, while Charlotte concede as many as 2.11 goals per away match, strongly supporting the hosts’ attacking output. Their offensive potential is also confirmed by xG: 1.56 for Atlanta and 1.17 for Charlotte, with the average xG conceded by both sides standing at 1.43 and 1.91, respectively. In their last five matches, Atlanta scored 9 and conceded 10 goals, while Charlotte found the net 11 times, meaning both teams are currently involved in open games. The Over 1.5 goals line has been covered in 75% of Atlanta’s matches and 89% of Charlotte’s, making Over 1.5 goals the strongest and most consistent data-backed option.

Atlanta United have been leading at the break in 50% of their matches, compared with just 22% for Charlotte, while the visitors have gone into half-time level in as many as 56% of their games. The hosts average 2.17 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per match, whereas Charlotte score 1.33 goals away from home but allow opponents 2.11. Atlanta’s advantage is also evident in chance creation: their average xG stands at 1.56 versus Charlotte’s 1.17, while shots on target number 6.00 compared with 3.78. After half-time, Atlanta score an average of 1.33 goals and concede just 0.50, while Charlotte score 0.56 and concede 1.22, further supporting the HT/FT scenario of the hosts maintaining their lead through to full-time.