Brazil - Serie AArena MRVData current as of August 13, 2026

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio: match statistics

Reasoning:

Full analysis and pick in the app

Check the betting analysis, pick, value bet and full reasoning for this match.

Check analysis and pick

Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio: form, goals and key statistics

Game details

Atlético Mineiro plays Grêmio in Serie A (Brazil). The game is scheduled for August 16, 2026. Venue: Arena MRV.

Recent form

Atlético Mineiro has 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss over its last five games, averaging 1.60 points per game. Grêmio has 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 1.40 points per game.

Scoring records

Atlético Mineiro scores 1.29 goals per game and allows 1.29. Grêmio scores 1.14 and allows 1.29. Games in this league average 2.57 goals.

BTTS and goal totals

Both teams score in 48% of Atlético Mineiro's games and 62% of Grêmio's. The Over 2.5 rates are 48% and 43%, compared with league averages of 57% for BTTS and 48% for Over 2.5.

xG and shots

Atlético Mineiro has the higher season xG average, 1.41 to 1.25 per game. Atlético Mineiro takes 13.2 shots per game, while Grêmio takes 11.3.

First-half and second-half trends

Atlético Mineiro leads at halftime in 38% of its games and scores 0.57 goals per game after halftime. Grêmio leads at halftime in 14% and scores 0.76 after halftime.

When the teams score

Atlético Mineiro's most productive scoring window is minutes 31-45+ (7 goals). For Grêmio, it is minutes 46-60 (8 goals). These are past scoring patterns, not predicted goal times.

League scoring profile

Serie A games average 2.57 goals. Both teams score in 57% of games, and 48% finish with at least three goals.

Head-to-head record

Before this game, 3 previous meetings were available. The record was 0 home wins, 0 draws and 3 away wins. Those games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

Before kickoff

1X2 odds

(1.78)
(3.50)
(4.84)

Pre-game profilewhat do the season numbers say?

This team profile combines season stats and recent form. In-game statistics appear after the final whistle.

Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.29Goals scored / game1.14
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.29Goals allowed / game1.29
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
48%Average possession50%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
4.24Shots on target / game3.71
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

Team statswho is more efficient?

Compare both teams' attacking and defensive records this season.

13.24Shots per game11.29
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
4.24Shots on target3.71
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
9.7%Shot conversion10.1%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
48%Possession50%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.41xG for1.25
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.6xG against1.5
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

Shooting quality

Atlético Mineiro: BalancedGrêmio: Balanced
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
Accuracy (shots on target)32%33%
Chance quality (xG per shot)0.110.11
Finishing (goals per shot on target)0.300.31

xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.

* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.

Team formwho is in better shape?

Last five games and season record, overall, at home and away.

Atlético Mineiro is 14% better for: last-5 form.

1.6 pts / game - Atlético Mineiro · 1.4 pts / game - Grêmio

Atlético Mineiro
LWDWD
Season result split
38% W24% R38% P
Season (W-D-L)
8-5-8
1.38 pts / game · goal difference 0
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-2-1
1.60 pts / game
Record at home (W-D-L)
4-4-1
Last 5 at home
2-2-1
WLDWD
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.2Goals conceded: 1.0xG: 1.17Opponent xG: 1.90BTTS: 60%Over 2.5: 40%
Grêmio
WLLDW
Season result split
29% W33% R38% P
Season (W-D-L)
6-7-8
1.19 pts / game · goal difference -3
Last 5 (W-D-L)
2-1-2
1.40 pts / game
Record away (W-D-L)
0-4-6
Last 5 away
0-3-2
DLDDL
Last 5 games - averages
Goals scored: 1.6Goals conceded: 1.8xG: 1.31Opponent xG: 1.60BTTS: 100%Over 2.5: 80%

Goalshow do both teams score and concede?

How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.

Atlético Mineiro is 13% better for: goals scored per game.

1.29 goals / game - Atlético Mineiro · 1.14 goals / game - Grêmio

Atlético Mineiro scoring profile: strong

Atlético Mineiro scores in 67% of games (14 of 21 meczów), while Grêmio keeps a clean sheet in 24% (5 of 21 meczów).

Grêmio scoring profile: very strong

Grêmio scores in 71% of games (15 of 21 meczów), while Atlético Mineiro keeps a clean sheet in 19% (4 of 21 meczów).

27Goals scored (season)24
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
27Goals conceded (season)27
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
2.57Average goals per game2.43
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
6Goals scored (last 5)8
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
5Goals conceded (last 5)9
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

How often they score at least...

67%1 goal71%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
38%2 goals24%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
19%3 goals10%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
5%4 goals5%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

How often they concede at least...

81%1 goal76%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
33%2 goals43%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
10%3 goals10%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
5%4 goals0%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

* Statistics include both teams' home and away games this season.

Both teams scored (BTTS)how often do both teams score?

How often games involving these teams produce goals at both ends, compared with the league average.

48%
Atlético Mineiro - BTTSBTTS - percentage of matches where both teams scored.10 of 21 meczów
57%
League average

Goal patterns

19%BTTS at half-time24%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
10%BTTS in both halves10%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
29%Scored in both halves14%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

BTTS and goal count

38%Min. 3 goals and BTTS43%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
10%Min. 3 goals without BTTS0%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
60%BTTS - last 5100%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

Goal count (Over/Under)how often do these games cross the goal lines?

See how often games involving these teams clear each goal line, for the full game and each half.

1st half

76%Min. 1 goal before half-time57%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
33%Min. 2 goals before half-time29%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
14%Min. 3 goals before half-time10%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

2nd half

81%Min. 1 goal after half-time71%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
33%Min. 2 goals after half-time48%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
14%Min. 3 goals after half-time19%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

Game halveswhen do the teams score more often?

How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.

Atlético Mineiro is 52% better for: first-half form (half-time points).

1.52 pts / game - Atlético Mineiro · 1 pts / game - Grêmio

Atlético Mineiro - half-time state
38% leading38% draw24% trailing
Grêmio - half-time state
14% leading57% draw29% trailing

Before half-time (1st half)

1.52Points per game (1st half)1
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
0.71Goals scored (1st half)0.38
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
0.52Goals conceded (1st half)0.57
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.24Average goals (1st half)0.95
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
57%Clean sheet before half-time57%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
48%No goal before half-time62%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

After half-time (2nd half)

0.95Points per game (2nd half)1.29
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
0.57Goals scored (2nd half)0.76
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
0.76Goals conceded (2nd half)0.71
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
1.33Average goals (2nd half)1.48
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
33%Clean sheet after half-time43%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio
57%No goal after half-time52%
Atlético MineiroGrêmio

Atlético Mineiro - second-half results

19% W38% R43% P
32
Half-time points
15
Half-time goals
+4
Goal difference (1st half)
20
Second-half points
-4
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.52
PPG before half-time
Lead holding100%

Leads at halftime in 38% of games and wins 38%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.2

Allows 0.2 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Grêmio - second-half results

29% W43% R29% P
21
Half-time points
8
Half-time goals
-4
Goal difference (1st half)
27
Second-half points
+1
Goal difference (2nd half)
1.00
PPG before half-time
Lead holding207%

Leads at halftime in 14% of games and wins 29%. Also wins some games without leading at halftime.

Defense after halftime+0.1

Allows 0.1 more goals per game after halftime, a sign that the defense becomes less effective later in games.

Atlético Mineiro - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game2.200.80
Goals scored / game0.80.4
Goals allowed / game0.20.8
Average goals per game1.01.2
1 goal60%80%
2 goals20%20%
3 goals20%20%
Clean sheet80%20%
No goal40%80%
Goal difference+3-2
Half-time: 60% leading - 40% draw - 0% trailing
2nd half: 20% won - 20% draw - 60% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 20% - Half-time goals total: 4
Grêmio - last 5 games by half
1st half2nd half
Points per game0.602.00
Goals scored / game0.41.2
Goals allowed / game1.00.8
Average goals per game1.42.0
1 goal80%100%
2 goals60%80%
3 goals0%20%
Clean sheet20%40%
No goal60%20%
Goal difference-3+2
Half-time: 0% leading - 60% draw - 40% trailing
2nd half: 60% won - 20% draw - 20% lost
BTTS at half-time (last 5): 40% - Half-time goals total: 2

* Table colors show frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate and red is rare. They are not team ratings.

Goals by minutewhen do goals arrive?

The parts of a game in which both teams score and allow the most goals.

Atlético Mineiro
ScoredConceded
3
3
0-15
5
3
16-30
7
5
31-45
2
3
46-60
5
5
61-75
5
8
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (7 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.

Grêmio
ScoredConceded
2
1
0-15
2
4
16-30
4
7
31-45
8
6
46-60
4
8
61-75
4
1
76-90

Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (8 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.

* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.

Additional team indicatorswhat do xG, efficiency and form show?

A comparison of chance quality, results and trends from completed games this season.

Game profile

2.50
Estimated goals
attack vs. opponent defense
1.3 : 1.2
Estimated goal split
home : away
97%
Pace vs league
100% = league average
55%
Both teams scored (BTTS)
average from both teams' seasons
+33%
Derby effect
H2H goals vs typical matches
48%
BTTS estimate
from both teams' scoring frequency
10%
0:0 risk
about 1 in 10 matches
0-1
Most common goal range
attack vs. defense for both teams

Atlético Mineiro

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.19
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.19
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.5 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.12
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.31
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
88%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
117%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.22
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
-0.1
Late goals
19% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 11% come in the first quarter-hour.
19%

Grêmio

Net xG balance
Difference between the quality of chances created and allowed per match.
-0.25
Results compared with xG
Difference between the actual goal balance and the balance suggested by xG.
+0.10
Points compared with goal balance
Comparison between collected points and the points implied by the team's goal balance.
-2.8 pts
Finishing efficiency
Does the team convert chances? Positive means it scores more than the quality of chances suggests.
-0.11
Defensive efficiency
Does the defense or goalkeeper outperform the chances allowed? A positive value means the team allows fewer goals than its xGA suggests.
+0.21
Attack vs league
How much the team scores compared with the league average for this role. 120% means 20% above average.
104%
Defense vs. league
Goals allowed compared with the league average. An 80% score means 20% fewer goals allowed.
88%
Form trend
Compares points from the last five games with the full-season average.
+0.21
Stronger second half?
How many more goals the team scores after half-time than before it.
+0.4
Late goals
17% of this team's goals come in minutes 76-90. For comparison, 8% come in the first quarter-hour.
17%

* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range use public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical game profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed games from the season.

League contextis this a high-scoring league?

How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).

Teams vs league

Atlético MineiroLigaGrêmio
Average goals per game 2.572.57 2.43
Both teams scored 48%57% 62%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) 48%48% 43%
Clean sheets 19%24% 24%
Goal before half-time 76%75% 57%
Goal after half-time 81%77% 71%

^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.

2.57
Average goals per game
57%
Both teams scored
48%
Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5)
24%
Clean sheets
1.47
Home goals / game
1.10
Away goals / game
+34%
Home attack advantage
+25%
Home defensive advantage
+21%
Total home advantage
Goals in 1st half (whole league)
75%
1 goal
34%
2 goals
8%
3 goals
1%
4 goals
Goals in 2nd half (whole league)
77%
1 goal
41%
2 goals
15%
3 goals
5%
4 goals

Head-to-head

Record from Atlético Mineiro's perspective: 0 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses against Grêmio. Games average 3.33 goals, and both teams scored in 100% of them.

Grêmio
2 : 1
Atlético Mineiro
CA Mineiro
1 : 3
Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense
Grêmio FB Porto Alegrense
2 : 1
CA Mineiro

FAQ

When do Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio play?

Atlético Mineiro face Grêmio on August 16, 2026 in Serie A at Arena MRV. The exact kick-off time in your timezone is shown at the top of the match page.

What is the head-to-head record between Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio?

In the last 3 head-to-head matches Atlético Mineiro won 0, Grêmio won 3 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 3.33 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.

What do the goal statistics show before Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

Atlético Mineiro score 1.29 goals per game on average and Grêmio 1.14. The Serie A average is 2.57 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 48% of games. Both teams score in 48% of Atlético Mineiro's matches and 62% of Grêmio's.

What form are Atlético Mineiro and Grêmio in?

Over the last 5 games Atlético Mineiro have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Grêmio 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).

Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio?

The statistical background for Atlético Mineiro vs Grêmio — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.